Video Lecture Series on the U.S.
Computer Game Industry: Opening & Online Game Technology Trends
and Directions in 3-5 years
Walt Scacchi
Game Culture and
Technology Laboratory
and
Institute for Software
Research
University of California,
Irvine
Irvine, CA 92697-3455 USA
Version of: 22 August 2007
Previous Version: 21 August 2007
- This lecture introduces and outlines
the structures of the series.
- The overall focus is to provide an
overview of game technology trends and directions over
the next 3-5 years for:
- casual games
- mobile games
- PC/local-area network games
- massively multiplayer
games (MMOGs)
- virtual worlds
- This is to help
identify emerging markets, game and game technology development
opportunities, as well as challenges in game development and
deployment in the years ahead.
- Facts and opinions informed by
- published references and case studies
- industry experts
- experience in game development
- experience in software development,
technological innovation, and corporate sponsored projects
Opportunities and strategies for entry into U.S. game market
and other global markets
- New games, game play experiences, game
interfaces, game play venues, and game technologies all represent
opportunity areas for innovation, new products and services, and new
markets (domestic and international)
- Expect the future of computer game culture and
technology to be "high growth" on a global basis.
- Key challenges are how best to realize
innovation, new products and services, and increased market (share)
growth
- No single best strategy exists to approaching
the U.S. market or any other national market
- Strategies will vary by
- game production studio
- game publisher
- game content franchise
- game player community
- business partners and investors
- Strategies must also address "business model"
- direct to consumer (pay-to-play versus
free-to-play)
- retail distribution
- publishing partners
- content licensing
- in-bound (books, comics, cinema)
- out-bound (merchandising)
- role of advertising and external advertisers
(non-publisher business partners) in revenue stream
- role of platforms and (corporate) platform
owners
- overall revenue stream sources and
production cost controls
Casual games
- Future games
- not addressing existing parlor, board, card, or legacy arcade games
- focused on frequent, short-duration game play (up to 30 minutes)
- games accessed or downloaded from the Web or corporate portal server (or via promotional storage package)
- corporate games for job/task training
- corporate games for consumer education on new products/services
- adver-gaming--games as advertisements for other products/services
- corporate games and adver-games may require U.S. marketing partners
- Future game play experiences and interfaces
- game play as training or education
- Web browser-based user interfaces (including plug-in components or helper applications, as embedded scripting)
- Future game play venues
- New game technologies
- multi-core processors
- not expected to impact casual games
- video/cameras and audio recording,
playback, mixing and remixing
- likely to appear in Web-based games
- may leverage partnerships with video/audio social networking and content distribution services (YouTube, Joost, Aleric)
- other embedded devices
- GPS-based games for training applications
- Television
- heterogeneous user interfaces
- new game interface devices
- video and audio
- haptic and gestural devices (wireless)
- service-oriented computing (game content
servers)
- Game services provided through Web Portal (Yahoo Games)
- Integrated with other portal services
- Relationship to social networking Web sites or
online
communities
- via partnership with established portal service provider (Cyworld, MySpace)
- social networking service APIs (application program interfaces) that support user-created games
- Game production, development, marketing and
deployment
issues
- Production: costs, schedules, complexity
increasing
- Focused on dramatic cost, schedule, and complexity reduction
- small team (single developer?), schedule measured in weeks, known complexity (based on prior experience)
- Development
- Relative ease/complexity of game development
- Must be easy to develop, therefore low complexity, but focused to realizing quick and simple high-value game play experience
- How may new game technologies "break"
traditional approaches to game development?
- use integrated game development and deployment tools and techniques
- What kinds of new game development concepts,
techiques, and tools are needed?
- What about massively multi-developer (MMD)
approaches to game development?
- What role for free/open source software
development?
- Many projects now in progress worldwide.
- What about user/player created game content,
modifications ("game mods"), and complete conversions?
- may be promising approach to single player or casual game development
- Marketing
- Market cultivation and community development
- tied to established market channels (retail stores, Web portals)
- look for partnership opportunity with established U.S. portal
- Deployment and post-deployment support
- Distribution model (download, retail sales,
product tie-in, other)
- expect growth in download, difficult access to retail
channels (unless via partnership with major U.S. publisher), game
give-aways.
- Community maintenance
- via periodic new game offerings and cross-promotional tie-ins on portals
- Game upgrades and expansion
- to be avoided, due to growth of game software complexity
- better to offer new game rather than game upgrade
Mobile games
- Mobile game platforms
- Cell phones
- Personal digital assistants (PDAs)
- Handheld consoles (PSP, Nintendo DS, etc.)
- Media players (Ipod)
- Ultra-mobile personal computer (UMPC)
- Mobile mixed reality games
- Future games
- not addressing existing parlor, board, card, or legacy arcade games
- focused on frequent, short-duration game play sessions (1-15 minutes with asynchronous or aperiodic interactions)
- phone-based games anticipated
- geo-referenced games and geographic maps anticipated
- games that incorporate GPS, Web, and phone-based services provide mixed reality experiences
- games accessed or downloaded from the Web or corporate portal server (or via promotional storage package)
- adver-gaming--games as advertisements or promotional tie-ins to phone services
- corporate games and adver-games may require U.S. marketing partners
- little/no mobile ecommerce capabilities in the U.S.
- Future game play experiences and interfaces
- very casual gaming near term
- mixed reality game play in real-world and online anticipated
- user interfaces to remain bandwidth and display limited
- Future game play venues
- outdoor or urban situated game play venues anticipated
- location-specific game play venues (shopping malls, theme parks, outdoor stadium or motorsports facility)
- New game technologies
- multi-core processors
- mobile game platforms will evolve to incorporate more
functionally dedicated processor cores that increasingly mimic current
PC platforms (with CPU, GPU, audio processor, network processor, etc.)
- 4-8 processor cores for low-power mobile devices anticipated
- (video) cameras and audio recording,
playback, mixing and remixing
- future mobile games incorporate video/audio capture and upload to remote service providers anticipated
- remote services to provide value-added computational
processing of uploaded game content for user-directed sharing or
redistribution
- other embedded devices
- Global Positioning System (GPS) based game mechanics anticipated as component of mobile games
- waterproof or weatherproof mobile devices that can serve a data capture instruments for mobile games anticipated
- diverse mobile devices that can interoperate over wireless networks with other devices
- cell phone to television with embedded processor
- heterogeneous user interfaces
- new game interface devices
- one-hand versus two-hand haptic interface devices (wireless game play remote wand and "nanchuk")
- body-worn sensors or body-area sensor network for capturing/uploading sensor telemetry data
- health/fitness training or personal improvement games
- multi-language
interfaces enabling people with different natural languages to
communicate and interact through games
- restricted language-language translation of user-constructed phrases on mobile device
- more comprehensive language-language translation (including text-to-speech) via remote phone service providers
- heterogeneous networking
- mobile devices that can interoperate over wireless data
communications,
sensor telemetry, and telecommunications networks (Internet/Web, GPS, phone service provider)
- service-oriented computing (game content
servers)
- game-based digital merchandising
- game-based digital products
- ring-tones
- screens or wallpapers
- games as promotional rewards or giveaways with use/purchase on other phone services
- Relationship to social networking Web sites or
online
communities
- mobile online communities and social networking services anticipated
- community portal user interfaces tailored for mobile devices
- Game production, development, marketing and
deployment
issues
- Production: costs, schedules, complexity
increasing
- single-user mobile game costs, schedules, and complexity may be comparable to casual games
- not including fees paid to phone service provider
- mobile-specific games or mixed reality games expected to
have higher cost and complexity and longer schedule, due to technical
innovation and market development risks
- Development
- Relative ease/complexity of game development
- single user mobile games comparable to casual games
- multi-device, multi-player, or multi-service games more complex to develop
- How may new game technologies "break"
traditional approaches to game development?
- Tools for casual single user games may suffice for developing single-user mobile games
- Tools for multi-device, mixed reality games still experimental at present
- May represent an opportunity for development of
integrated multi-device game development environment, framework, or
component library
- Tool development and sales is not typically a profitable undertaking by itself
- What kinds of new game development concepts,
techiques, and tools are needed?
- What about massively multi-developer (MMD)
approaches to game development?
- not for single user mobile games
- possible or potential for multi-device, multi-server mobile games and mixed reality game development
- What role for free/open source software
development?
- Some experimental projects now underway
- OSS component libraries for multi-device mobile game networking may appear
- What about user/player created game content,
modifications ("game mods"), and complete conversions?
- little/no mobile game content or modification tools available
- integration of video/audio services into mobile deviced may enable user-created innovations
- Marketing
- Market cultivation and community development
- primarily centered around phone service providers (closed markets)
- need to look for partnerships with phone service
providers that can generate two-way revenue streams with phone service
providers
- Deployment and post-deployment support
- Distribution model (download, retail sales,
product tie-in, other)
- primarily download via phone service provider; no retail store sales anticipated
- Community management and maintenance
- primarily centered around phone service providers (closed markets)
- U.S. phone service providers do little/no mobile game community management/maintenance services
- need
to look for partnerships with phone service providers that can generate
two-way revenue streams with phone service providers
- Game upgrades and expansion
- likely to be avoided, due to growth of mobile game software complexity
- better to offer new game tied to new phones, rather than game upgrade on existing phone/mobile devices
- Reference: E. Koivisto, Mobile Games 2010, Nokia Research Center, NRC-TR-2007-011, November 2007.
PC/online games
- Supports single player standalone
- May support up to 128 concurrent online players
- Each with a PC game client connected to a game server over local-area (LAN) or wide-area (WAN)
network, such as the Internet
- More typically support 4-16 concurrent users on a LAN
- Future games
- largest area of market focus due to very large numbers of PCs
- PC games may be more/less complex to develop compared to current console games
- superset of casual and mobile game
- market segmented by game genres (action versus real-time strategy versus role-playing game versus simulated world, etc.)
- continuing emphasis on visual/graphic realism, game play physics, spatialized multi-channel audio, higher speed networking, etc.
- games that exploit multiple dedicated function add-in processing cards or multiple processor cores anticipated
- new types of game engines anticipated
- Chemistry, biology, and sociology game engines that enable increasing game-play realism anticipated
- games that utilize multiple (up to three or more) displays anticipated
- exploits continual reduction in existing display costs versus increased single display resolution
- easy way to create more immersive game play experience (or field of view) at reasonable cost
- can be amortized across multiple games
- Future game play experiences and interfaces
- PC games that enable play to continue across networks and devices anticipated
- PC-to-cell phone-to-PC games anticipated
- games that incorporate content creation or modification as a core game play mechanism anticipated
- Future game play venues
- Current venues (home, arcades, Internet cafes, PC Baang)
- Corporate (training) workplaces
- Schools
- Libraries
- Cinemas
- Concert halls
- Sports stadiums
- Broadcast studios
- New game technologies
- multi-core processors
- 8-128 processing cores per PC anticipated
- homogeneous versus heterogeneous versus mixed processing architectures
- concurrency alternatives (from coarse-grain to fine-grain)
- agent (programmer control)
- task/transaction (programmer control)
- thread (programmer control, compiler detection and allocation)
- data parallelism (signal processing device drivers)
- game software functionality distributed across cores:
- game play dynamics (user interactions, display management, repository management and data decompression)
- numerical simulation (collison detection, inverse kinematics, and other game physics)
- non-player characters and in-game bots (artificial intelligence)
- rendering/shading (graphics)
- audio (decoding multi-channel spatialization and speech chat)
- networking (secure data communications)
- game functionality coordination and scheduling (game "operating system")
- all functionality affected by interactions between up
to 10,000 in-game objects, each object interacting with up to 10 other
objects
- (video) cameras and audio
- game-based recording,
playback, mixing and remixing anticipated
- other embedded devices
- game players (game client or game engines) embedded in consumer televisions or standalone displays
- heterogeneous user interfaces
- new game interface devices
- superset of casual and mobile games
- multi-language
interfaces enabling people with different natural languages to
communicate and interact
- superset of casual and mobile games
- heterogeneous networking
- superset of casual and mobile spanning data
communications,
sensor telemetry, and telecommunications networks
- service-oriented computing (game content
servers)
- game asset/content creation or modification based on video/audio inputs and processing anticipated
- domain-independent collaboration environments
- anticipated as common environment for PC game community
- Relationship to social networking Web sites or
online
communities
- superset of casual and mobile games
- Game production, development, marketing and
deployment
issues
- Production: costs, schedules, complexity
increasing
- All increasing at exponential growth rate
- Top-tier games in U.S. anticipated to cost $30M-$50M at current growth rates
- U.S. game studios outsourcing some game development anticipated
- Development
- Relative ease/complexity of game development
- Top-tier retail game development complexity increasing exponentially!
- new game development concepts, techniques, and tools needed!
- may include new game or genre-specific programming languages
- How may new game technologies "break"
traditional approaches to game development?
- Increased reliance on new, genre-specific game
development environments (content and software development kits, game
functionality libraries, incrementally compiled scripting/programming
languages)
- custom-built, in-house development (expensive, long time to develop, high risk if not core competency)
- buy/license from third-party (game engine vendors, such as id Software, Epic Games, CryTek, Emergent Technologies)
- limited to game functionality or capabilites provided by third-party software
- extensive modification of third-party source code anticipated (expensive, long time to develop, high risk if not core competency)
- What kinds of new game development concepts,
techiques, and tools are needed?
- What about massively multi-developer (MMD)
approaches to game development?
- definitely possible
- particularly where large number of game developers (or students) may participate
- What role for free/open source software
development?
- highly probable, especially for large-scale game development "experiments"
- particularly where large number of game developers (or students) may participate
- What about user/player created game content,
modifications ("game mods"), and complete conversions?
- many top-tier retail games sold with user-accessible "software development kit" (SDK) or integrated game development environment
- no source code access, so no user-modification to game engine
- all changes made via game scripting language (a domain-specific or genre-specific programming language)
- some top-tier games are marketed in ways that
highlight/encourage user-created/user-modified game content or game
play experience
- user-created/user-modified content enables "mass customization" and personalization
- increases user investment, commitment to, and "viral promotion" of game brand
- user-created/user-modified content can be collected,
refined, re-implemented, and packaged for distribution as game
expansion pack
- Marketing
- Market cultivation and community development
- strong, established U.S. market for retail distribution of games
- publishers control/mediate access to retail distribution vendors (WalMart, Costco, Best Buy, Circuit City)
- emerging U.S. market for direct-to-consumer digital distribution
- facilitates transition to online commerce and micro-transactions
- Deployment and post-deployment support
- Distribution model
- download, retail sales,
product tie-in, other
- Community management
- always a good investment prior to game release
- Community maintenance
- always a good way to collect customer feedback and product upgrade ideas
- Game upgrades and expansion
- increasingly user-driven anticipated
Massively multiplayer online games (MMOGs)
- Future games
- same as PC/online games
- but not as technically sophisticated or resource-intensive as PC/online games
- Future game play experiences and interfaces
- same as PC/online games
- but not as technically sophisticated or resource-intensive as PC/online games
- Future game play venues
- same as PC/online games
- but not as technically sophisticated or resource-intensive as PC/online games
- New game technologies
- same as PC/online games
- but not as technically sophisticated or resource-intensive as PC/online games
- multi-core processors
- (video) cameras and audio recording,
playback, mixing and remixing
- other embedded devices (GPS, televisions)
- heterogeneous user interfaces
- new game interface devices
- multi-language
interfaces enabling people with different natural languages to
communicate and interact
- heterogeneous networking--spanning data
communications,
sensor telemetry, and telecommunications networks
- service-oriented computing (game content
servers)
- domain-independent collaboration environments
(for community support)
- Relationship to social networking Web sites or
online
communities
- same as PC/online games
- but not as technically sophisticated or resource-intensive as PC/online games
- Game production, development, marketing and
deployment
issues
- same as PC/online games
- but not as technically sophisticated or resource-intensive as PC/online games
- Production: costs, schedules, complexity
increasing
- Development
- Relative ease/complexity of game development
- How may new game technologies "break"
traditional approaches to game development?
- What kinds of new game development concepts,
techiques, and tools are needed?
- What about massively multi-developer (MMD)
approaches to game development?
- What role for free/open source software
development?
- What about user/player created game content,
modifications ("game mods"), and complete conversions?
- Marketing
- Market cultivation and community development
- Deployment and post-deployment support
- Distribution model (download, retail sales,
product tie-in, other)
- Community management
- Community maintenance
- Game upgrades and expansion
Virtual worlds
- Future game-based virtual worlds (GVWs)
- similar to "casual MMOGs"
- basis for Web 3.0 concepts, techniques, and tools
- basis for Web 3.0 web sites
- personal or corporate game level/map as Web site
- Future GVW play experiences and interfaces
- similar to casual games combined with Web navigation ("Web surfing")
- Future GVW play venues
- similar to "casual MMOGs"
- New GVW technologies
- multi-core processors
- (video) cameras and audio recording,
playback, mixing and remixing
- other embedded devices (GPS, televisions)
- heterogeneous user interfaces
- new game interface devices
- multi-language
interfaces enabling people with different natural languages to
communicate and interact
- heterogeneous networking--spanning data
communications,
sensor telemetry, and telecommunications networks
- service-oriented computing (game content
servers)
- domain-independent collaboration environments
(for community support)
- Relationship to social networking Web sites or
online
communities
- GVW production, development, marketing and
deployment
issues
- similar to MMOGs, but with lower cost and shortet development cycles due to user-created/user-modified GVW content
- Production: costs, schedules, complexity
increasing
- Development
- Relative ease/complexity of game development
- must be very easy to support user-created or user-modified content
- How may new game technologies "break"
traditional approaches to game development?
- What kinds of new GVW development concepts,
techiques, and tools are needed?
- What about massively multi-developer (MMD)
approaches to GVW development?
- What role for free/open source software
development?
- What about user/player created GVW content,
modifications ("game mods"), and complete conversions?
- Marketing
- Market cultivation and community development
- Deployment and post-deployment support
- Distribution model (download, retail sales,
product tie-in, other)
- Community management
- Community maintenance
- Game upgrades and expansion