The One-Step-Late PXEM Algorithm

Submitted to Statistics and Computing

Ruoxi Tang and David A. van Dyk
Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.

The EM algorithm is a popular method for computing maximum likelihood estimates or posterior modes in models that can be formulated in terms of missing data or latent structure. Although easy implementation and stable convergence add to the popularity of the algorithm, its sometimes notoriously slow convergence can be a nuisance and in some cases is severe enough to leave the algorithm untenable. In recent years, however, various adaptations of the EM algorithm have significantly improved its speed of convergence while maintaining its stability and simplicity. One especially successful method for maximum likelihood is known as the parameter expanded EM or PXEM algorithm (Liu, Rubin, Wu, 1998). PXEM is based on the method of working parameters (Meng, van Dyk, 1997), and has significantly improved the rate of convergence of EM for a number of important models. Unfortunately, PXEM does not generally have a closed form M-step when computing posterior modes, even when the corresponding EM algorithm is in closed form. In this paper we confront this problem by adapting the one-step-late EM algorithm (Green, 1990) to PXEM to establish a fast closed form algorithm that improves on the one-step-late EM algorithm by insuring {\it monotone} convergence. We illustrate these algorithms in a simple probit regression model and a variety of dynamic linear models with multivariate time-invariant system equations. We go into some detail in the case of dynamic linear models, describing algorithms that can handle polynomial growth and trends, seasonal components, seasonal factors, harmonic analysis, and regression components. The various algorithms are used in several examples showing computational savings of as much as 99.9%, with the biggest savings occurring when the EM algorithm is the slowest to converge.

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