1. Review of Lec02--State of Computing

Webcentric View of World

a. Hardware-Software Chain from

enduser devices to service providers

b. Players--

Who are they?

Advantages and disadvantages to each group

Breaking news--How to respond to

pricing errors by goods providers?

2. Productivity in Computing--a bit of history--Pattern?

A. One-on-One--It's 1956,

Feldman using the IBM 650 at Carnegie Tech

Cards in, cards out, no disc, no tape, Software minimal

Nice for users, not best use of machine

B. Operators, operating systems, multi-programming

To increase machine utilization (productivity)

users submitted jobs to an operator who ran the jobs

Later on, primitive operating systems for running job

Then multi-programming--running several jobs at once

C. Time-sharing

Feldman at UCI starting in 1965

Devices, Model 33 TTY, early alphnumeric displays

Flakey operating systems, but better for users

D. Back to one-on-one

Personal computers

Why the PC revolution? System overload, let users in.

Lot's of "waste". Loss of control by organization.

Hook PC's up to servers.

E. The Web

"Ultimate" in providing access to users.

Lots of control possibilities, too.

Sharing SW, Sharing resources

F. Next Step???

3. Productivity in Organizations

Has the substantial investment in computing technology

reduced the cost of providing goods and services?

Anecdotal evidence v overall numbers

The conventional wisdom has been that the substantial

investment in computing technology has NOT reduced

the cost of providing goods and services

A. Why not?

•High cost of computing

•Adoption takes a long time

•Reaping benefits takes a long time

learning curve

•Measurement problems

e.g., role of credit cards,

quality improvement

•Shift business from one vendor to another

without improving productivity for industry

•Takes more than computing system to

increase sales and reduce costs

4. Unconventional Wisdom--Productivity is increasing

Sources: BusinessWeek, 29 Nov 99

LA Times, 13 Nov 99

On 12 Nov 99, "the BLS released

an upward revision of the productivity data,

counting software production for the first time as output

and making other upgrades."

in fact the data were revised back to 1970

what looked like slow productivity growth in 70's and early 80's

was apparently a temporary phenomenon

the revised look at productivity shows improvements beginning in

early 80's and current level of productivity improvements is

comparable to that of 60's

Still problems in picking up productivity in some industries.

Some industries still lagging behind.

Impact on economy

How long will productivity boom continue?

BW Table

The Stars--Computer and semiconductor industries have been the biggest contributors to measured productivity growth in the 1990's, with gains in excess of 25% annually. .....

The Cost-Cutters--May companies have become much more efficient without fundamentally changing what they make. Industries with more than 4% annual productivity growth in the 1990's include tires, textiles, household appliances, and aircraft.

The Innovators--Widely used innovations such as wireless telephones, internet browsers, improved drug treatments for depression, and automated teller machines may not be correctly counted in the economic statistics for years.

The Unmeasured--In sectors such as health care, education, government, and much of financial services, economists disagree what the proper measure of productivity is, much less how to calculate it.

The Laggards--Many industries have low or even negative productivity gains. For example, productivity in food stores fell at an average rate of 0.9% from 1989 to 1997 (the last year available). Other industries showing less than 2% annual gains in the 1990's include hotels and motels, restaurants, car dealers, auto repair shops, and furniture manufacturers.

Source: Business Week, 29 Nov 99, p 42