model{ for(k in 1:180){ logy[k] <- log(y[k]) logy[k] ~ dnorm(m[k],tau) m[k] <- mu + b[ID[k]] } for(i in 1:30){ b[i] ~ dnorm(0,taub) } sigma ~ dunif(0,100) tau <- 1/(sigma*sigma) sigmab ~ dunif(0,100) taub <- 1/(sigmab*sigmab) mu ~ dnorm(0,0.001) rho <- tau/(taub+tau) bf ~ dnorm(0,taub) ef ~ dnorm(0,tau) muf <- mu + bf logyf <- muf + ef # Predictive density yf <- exp(logyf) # 90th and 10th percentiles for muf U <- mu + 1.28*sqrt(1/taub) L <- mu - 1.28*sqrt(1/taub) }