Learning in
Graphical Models – spring 2006
ICS: 274B
Instructor: Max Welling
Code

Typ

Sec

Unt

Instructor

Time

Place

36745

Lec

A

4

WELLING, M.

TuTh
2:00 3:20p

CS 213

Prerequisites
ICS 274A Probabilistic Learning: Theory
and Algorithms, or with consent of instructor.
Goals
Many modern approaches to
probabilistic modeling of real world
data sets can be formulated in the unifying framework of graphical
models. Graphical models provide a common language to think and
communicate about probabilistic models and makes explicit the
underlying assumptions. Moreover, it provides the appropriate
structure for computations necessary for inference and learning in
these models.
It is the primary goal of this
course to familiarize the student
with the concepts of graphical models, and in particular with
learning these models from data. A student who has successfully
completed the course should be able to understand a wide variety
of well known models in terms of this unifying framework and feel
comfortable using it to design new models. The course will contain
1) formal mathematical sections necessary for the development of
the theory, 2) examples of probabilistic models (re)formulated in
the language of graphical models and 3) examples of successful
applications to real data.
This secondary goal of this class is to give
the
students hands on experience in solving real world problems.
For that purpose I have negotiated a deal with SciTech, a San Diego based
company:
if we improve their (naive Bayes) classifier on a particular classification
problem
(prediction of activity levels of chemical compounds  for data, see below)
then they
will provide a $300 bonus for the student who will come down and present this
work.
In addition, provided their goals are met one student can implement this
algorithm into
their software package as a summer intern.
Homework : (slides serve to give
you an impression what was done last time, but I expect
that we will significantly deviate from that. Also, homework will be
updated as we go.)
week 1: ROC
 read sections 2.1, 2.2, 2.3 from chapter 2 of David MacKay's
book.
 read chapter 2, 5 (until "plates") &
13 from Mike Jordan's book.
 read classnotes
 Excercises HW1
week 2:
 read chapter 6, 7 from Mike Jordan's book.
 Excercises HW2 (only
the relevant ones on topics we have treated in class)
 Project 1 (due May 4)
week 3:
 read chapter 9, 19, 20 from Mike Jordan's book.
 Excercises HW3 , Excercises HW4
(only the relevant ones
on topics we have treated in class. At this point homework is optional but
instructive. )

(stuff below this line is not
updated)
week 4:
 read chapter 8 from Mike Jordan's book (only those
topics treated in class).
week 5:
overview(9)
 read chapter 10, 11 from Mike Jordan's book (only
those topics treated in class).
 read classnotes
week 6: 1
 Excercises HW6
(due Th. Feb.26.)
week 7: classnotes
 read chapter 14 and classnotes
 work on projects
week 8: classnotes
read chapter 1 and classnotes (only topics explained
in class are required reading material)
work on projects
week 9:slides 16 slides 17 classnotes(HMM) classnotes(KF)
read chapters 12, 15, classnotes and the tutorial (only
topics explained in class are required reading material).
work on projects
week 10:
 presentation projects:
 review of current trends in machine learning
week 11: final exam:
MATLAB Demos:
SciTech Dataset:
Training
labels: 0: inactive compound, 1:
medium active compound, 2: active compound.
Continuous
attributes: 2 continuous attributes:
AlogP and Molecular_Weight
Discrete
attributes: 3 discrete attributes:
Num_H_Acceptors, Num_H_Donors,
Num_RotatableBonds.
Binary
finger print: very sparse binary
matrix where 1’s code for the presence of
certain substructures.
Using all the available attributes we wish
to predict the activity level of the compound.
Background Reading:
paper1, paper2, SciTech
powerpoint slides.
Syllabus:
The course will primarily be lecturebased
with homework and
exams. Most homework will revolve around the implementation of various
classification algorithms on the SciTech dataset provided above.
It is required that you use MATLAB for this coding work.
The following is a rough syllabus subject to
change.
1. Review of Statistical
Concepts
Random variables, probability distributions
and
probability densities. The multivariate Gaussian distribution.
Marginal and conditional independence. Bayes' rule. Estimation:
maximum likelihood, MAPestimates, Bayesian inference,
biasvariance tradeoff. Model selection and averaging,
overfitting.
2. Graphical Models.
Markov random fields and undirected
graphical models. Bayesian networks and directed acyclic graphical
models. Semantics of graphical models: independence assumptions,
Markov properties, Markov blanket, separability. Factor graphs,
chain graphs. Plates.
3. Hidden Variables and Exact
Inference.
Observed and hidden random variables. Bayes'
ball algorithm. Exact inference:
junction tree propagation and cutset conditioning.
4. Learning in Graphical
Models.
The expectation
maximization algorithm and free energy minimization. Iterative
conditional modes. Iterative scaling.
5. Unsupervised Learning 
Directed Graphical Models.
Mixture of Gaussians, Kmeans, principal components
analysis,
probabilistic principal components analysis, factor analysis,
independent components analysis, latent Dirichlet allocation.
6. Unsupervised Learning 
Undirected Graphical Models.
Boltzmann machines, products of experts,
additive random field
models. Examples in vision and text.
7. Supervised Learning 
Directed and Undirected Graphical Models.
Naive Bayes as a graphical model,
logistic regression, linear regression.
Conditional mixture models, mixtures of experts. Conditional
random fields.
8. Graphical Models of Time
Series.
State space models, autoregressive models.
Hidden Markov Models. The BaumWelch and Viterbi algorithm. The
Kalman filter and smoother. Dynamic Bayes nets. Examples in speech
and biological sequence data.
9. Approximate Inference.
Mean field methods and
structured variational inference. Loopy belief propagation. Region
graphs and generalized belief propagation. Sampling: rejection
sampling, importance sampling, particle filters, Markov chain
Monte Carlo sampling, Gibbs sampling, Hybrid Monte Carlo
sampling.
10. Bayesian Learning and
Structure Learning in Graphical Models.
Conjugate priors.
Fully observed Bayes' nets. Variational Bayes algorithm. Sampling
from the posterior. Laplace approximation.
ChowLiu's algorithm
for trees. Structure learning in fully observed Bayes' nets.
Structure learning in the presence of hidden variables: structural
EM.
Grading Criteria
Grading will be based on a combination of weekly homework and a project (40%
of the grade), a midterm exam (30%) and a final exam (30%) .
Textbook
The textbook that will be used for this course has not been
published yet, but copies will distributed during class.
1. M.I. Jordan: An Introduction
to Graphical Models.
Optional side readings are:
2. D. MacKay: Information
Theory, Inference and Learning
Algorithms
3. M.I. Jordan: Learning in Graphical Models
4. B. Frey: Graphical Models for Machine Learning and Digital
Communication
5. J. Pearl: Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent
Systems
6. R.O. Duda, P.E. Hart, D. Stork: Pattern
Classification
7. C.M. Bishop: Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition
8. T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, J.H, Friedman: The Elements of
Statistical Learning
9. B.D. Ripley: Pattern Recognition and Neural Networks