# Abstracts

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We discuss an information theoretic approach for categorizing and
modeling dynamic processes. The approach can learn a compact and
informative statistic which summarizes past states to predict future
observations. Furthermore, the uncertainty of the prediction is
characterized nonparametrically by a joint density over the learned
statistic and present observation. We discuss the application of the
technique to both noise driven dynamical systems and random
processes sampled from a density which is conditioned on the
past. In the first case we show results in which both the dynamics
of random walk and the statistics of the driving noise are
captured. In the second case we present results in which a
summarizing statistic is learned on noisy random telegraph waves
with differing dependencies on past states. In both cases the
algorithm yields a principled approach for discriminating processes
with differing dynamics and/or dependencies. The method is grounded
in ideas from information theory and nonparametric statistics.

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We present extensions to our previous work in modelling dynamical processes.
The approach uses an information theoretic criterion for searching over
subspaces of the past observations, combined with a nonparametric density
characterizing its relation to one-step-ahead prediction and uncertainty.
We use this methodology to model handwriting stroke data, specifically
signatures, as a dynamical system and show that it is possible to learn
a model capturing their dynamics for use either in synthesizing realistic
signatures and in discriminating between signatures and forgeries even
though no forgeries have been used in constructing the model.
This novel approach yields promising results even for small training sets.

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In applications of graphical models arising in fields such as computer vision,
the hidden variables of interest are most naturally specified by continuous,
non-Gaussian distributions. However, due to the limitations of existing inference
algorithms, it is often necessary to form coarse, discrete approximations to
such models. In this paper, we develop a *nonparametric belief propagation*
(NBP) algorithm, which uses stochastic methods to propagate kernel-based approximations
to the true continuous messages. Each NBP message update is based on an efficient
sampling procedure which can accomodate an extremely broad class of potential
functions, allowing easy adaptation to new application areas. We validate our
method using comparisons to continuous BP for Gaussian networks, and an application
to the stereo vision problem.

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The issue of data association arises frequently in sensor
networks; whenever multiple sensors and sources are present, it
may be necessary to determine which observations from different
sensors correspond to the same target. In highly uncertain
environments, one may need to determine this correspondence
without the benefit of an \emph{a priori} known joint
signal/sensor model. This paper examines the data association
problem as the more general hypothesis test between factorizations
of a single, learned distribution. The optimal test between known
distributions may be decomposed into model-dependent and
statistical dependence terms, quantifying the cost incurred by
model estimation from measurements compared to a test between
known models. We demonstrate how one might evaluate a two-signal
association test efficiently using kernel density estimation
methods to model a wide class of possible distributions, and show
the resulting algorithm's ability to determine correspondence in
uncertain conditions through a series of synthetic examples. We
then describe an extension of this technique to multi-signal
association which can be used to determine correspondence while
avoiding the computationally prohibitive task of evaluating all
hypotheses. Empirical results of the approximate approach are
presented.

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In many applications of graphical models arising in computer vision, the hidden variables of interest
are most naturally specified by continuous, non-Gaussian distributions. There exist inference algorithms
for discrete approximations to these continuous distributions, but for the high-dimensional variables
typically of interest, discrete inference becomes infeasible. Stochastic methods such as particle
filters provide an appealing alternative. However, existing techniques fail to exploit the rich
structure of the graphical models describing many vision problems. Drawing on ideas from regularized
particle filters and belief propagation (BP), this paper develops a nonparametric belief propagation
(NBP) algorithm applicable to general graphs. Each NBP iteration uses an efficient sampling procedure
to update kernel-based approximations to the true, continuous likelihoods. The algorithm can accomodate
an extremely broad class of potential functions, including nonparametric representations. Thus, NBP
extends particle filtering methods to the more general vision problems that graphical models can
describe. We apply the NBP algorithm to infer component interrelationships in a parts-based face model,
allowing location and reconstruction of occluded features.

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The problem of approximating the product of several Gaussian mixture
distributions arises in a number of contexts, including the nonparametric
belief propagation (NBP) inference algorithm and the training of
product of experts models.
This paper develops two multiscale algorithms for sampling from a
product of Gaussian mixtures, and compares their performance to existing
methods. The first is a multiscale variant of previously proposed
Monte Carlo techniques, with comparable
theoretical guarantees but improved empirical convergence rates.
The second makes use of approximate kernel density evaluation
methods to construct a fast approximate sampler, which is
guaranteed to sample points to within a tunable parameter $\epsilon$
of their true probability.
We compare both multiscale samplers on a set of computational examples
motivated by NBP, demonstrating significant improvements over existing
methods.

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Automatic self-calibration of ad-hoc sensor networks is a critical need
for their use in military or civilian applications. In general,
self-calibration involves the combination of absolute location information
(e.g. GPS) with relative calibration information (e.g. time delay or
received signal strength between sensors) over regions of the network.
Furthermore, it is generally desirable to distribute the computational
burden across the network and minimize the amount of inter-sensor
communication. We demonstrate that the information used for sensor
calibration is fundamentally local with regard to the network topology and
use this observation to reformulate the problem within a graphical model
framework. We then demonstrate the utility of \emph{nonparametric belief
propagation} (NBP), a recent generalization of particle filtering, for
both estimating sensor locations and representing location uncertainties.
NBP has the advantage that it is easily implemented in a distributed
fashion, admits a wide variety of statistical models, and can represent
multi-modal uncertainty. We illustrate the performance of NBP on several
example networks while comparing to a previously published nonlinear least
squares method.

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Automatic self-calibration of ad-hoc sensor networks is a critical need
for their use in military or civilian applications. In general,
self-calibration involves the combination of absolute location information
(e.g. GPS) with relative calibration information (e.g. estimated distance
between sensors) over regions of the network. We formulate the
self-calibration problem as a graphical model, enabling application of
nonparametric belief propagation (NBP), a recent generalization of
particle filtering, for both estimating sensor locations and representing
location uncertainties. NBP has the advantage that it is easily
implemented in a distributed fashion, can represent multi-modal
uncertainty, and admits a wide variety of statistical models. This last
point is particularly appealing in that it can be used to provide
robustness against occasional high-variance (outlier) noise. We
illustrate the performance of NBP using Monte Carlo analysis on an example
network.

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In many applications, particularly power-constrained sensor networks, it is important to conserve the amount of data exchanged while maximizing the utility of that data for some inference task. Broadly, this tradeoff has two major cost components—the representation’s size (in distributed networks, the communications cost) and the error incurred by its use (the inference cost).

We analyze this tradeoff for a particular problem: communicating a particle-based representation (and more generally, a Gaussian mixture or kernel density estimate). We begin by characterizing the exact communication cost of these representations, noting that it is less than might be suggested by traditional communications theory due to the invariance of the represen- tation to reordering. We describe the optimal, lossless encoder when the generating distribution is known, and pose a sub-optimal encoder which still benefits from reordering invariance.

However, lossless encoding may not be sufficient. We describe one reasonable measure of
error for distribution-based messages and its consequences for inference in an acyclic network,
and propose a novel density approximation method based on KD-tree multiscale representations
which enables the communications cost and a bound on error to be balanced efficiently. We
show several empirical examples demonstrating the method’s utility in collaborative, distributed
signal processing under bandwidth or power constraints.

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Determining the structure of dependencies among a set of variables is a
common task in many signal and image processing applications, including
multi-target tracking and computer vision. In this paper we present an
information-theoretic, machine learning approach to problems of this type.
We cast this problem as a hypothesis test between factorizations of
variables into mutually independent subsets. We show that the likelihood
ratio can be written as sums of two sets of Kullback-Leibler (KL)
divergence terms. The first set captures the structure of the statistical
dependencies within each hypothesis, while the second set measures the
details of model differences between hypotheses. We then consider the
case when the signal prior models are unknown, so that the distributions
of interest must be estimated directly from data, showing that the second
set of terms is (asymptotically) negligible and quantifying the loss in
hypothesis separability when the models are completely unknown. We
demonstrate the utility of nonparametric estimation methods for such
problems, providing a general framework for determining and distinguishing
between dependency structures in highly uncertain environments.
Additionally, we develop a machine learning approach for estimating lower
bounds on KL-divergence and mutual information from samples of
high-dimensional random variables for which direct density estimation is
infeasible. We present empirical results in the context of three
prototypical applications: association of signals generated by sources
possessing harmonic behavior, scene correspondence using video imagery,
and detection of coherent behavior among sets of moving objects.

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Belief propagation (BP) is an increasingly popular method of performing
approximate inference on arbitrary graphical models. At times, even
further approximations are required, whether from quantization or other
simplified message representations or from stochastic approximation
methods. Introducing such errors into the BP message computations has
the potential to adversely affect the solution obtained. We analyze this
effect with respect to a particular measure of message error, and show
bounds on the accumulation of errors in the system. This leads both to
convergence conditions and error bounds in traditional and approximate BP
message passing.

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Understanding the dependency structure of a set of variables is a
key component in various signal processing applications which involve
data association. The simple task of detecting whether any
dependency exists is particularly difficult when models of the data
are unknown or difficult to characterize because of high-dimensional
measurements. We review the use of nonparametric tests for characterizing
dependency and how to carry out these tests with highdimensional
observations. In addition we present a method to assess
the significance of the tests.

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Automatic self-localization is a critical need for the effective use of
ad-hoc sensor networks in military or civilian applications. In general,
self-localization involves the combination of absolute location
information (\eg GPS) with relative calibration information (\eg distance
measurements between sensors) over regions of the network. Furthermore, it
is generally desirable to distribute the computational burden across the
network and minimize the amount of inter-sensor communication. We
demonstrate that the information used for sensor localization is
fundamentally local with regard to the network topology and use this
observation to reformulate the problem within a graphical model framework.
We then present and demonstrate the utility of \emph{nonparametric belief
propagation} (NBP), a recent generalization of particle filtering, for
both estimating sensor locations and representing location uncertainties.
NBP has the advantage that it is easily implemented in a distributed
fashion, admits a wide variety of statistical models, and can represent
multi-modal uncertainty. Using simulations of small- to moderately-sized
sensor networks, we show that NBP may be made robust to outlier
measurement errors by a simple model augmentation, and that judicious
message construction can result in better estimates. Furthermore, we
provide an analysis of NBP's communications requirements, showing that
typically only a few messages per sensor are required, and that even low
bit-rate approximations of these messages can have little or no
performance impact.

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Belief propagation (BP) is an increasingly popular method of performing
approximate inference on arbitrary graphical models. At times, even
further approximations are required, whether due to quantization of the
messages or model parameters, from other simplified message or model
representations, or from stochastic approximation methods. The
introduction of such errors into the BP message computations has the
potential to affect the solution obtained adversely. We analyze the
effect resulting from message approximation under two particular measures
of error, and show bounds on the accumulation of errors in the system.
This analysis leads to convergence conditions for traditional BP message
passing, and both strict bounds and estimates of the resulting error in
systems of approximate BP message passing.

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Particle filtering is often applied to the problem of object tracking
under non-Gaussian uncertainty; however, sensor networks frequently
require that the implementation be local to the region of interest,
eventually forcing the large, sample-based representation to be moved
among power-constrained sensors. We consider the problem of successive
approximation (i.e., lossy compression) of each sample-based density
estimate, in particular exploring the consequences (both theoretical and
empirical) of several possible choices of loss function and their
interpretation in terms of future errors in inference, justifying their
use for measuring approximations in distributed particle filtering.

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Nonparametric Bayesian approaches to clustering,
information retrieval, language modeling
and object recognition have recently shown great
promise as a new paradigm for unsupervised data
analysis. Most contributions have focused on the
Dirichlet process mixture models or extensions
thereof for which efficient Gibbs samplers exist.
In this paper we explore Gibbs samplers for
infinite complexity mixture models in the stick
breaking representation. The advantage of this
representation is improved modeling flexibility.
For instance, one can design the prior distribution
over cluster sizes or couple multiple infi-
nite mixture models (e.g., over time) at the level
of their parameters (i.e., the dependent Dirichlet
process model). However, Gibbs samplers for in-
finite mixture models (as recently introduced in
the statistics literature) seem to mix poorly over
cluster labels. Among others issues, this can have
the adverse effect that labels for the same cluster
in coupled mixture models are mixed up. We
introduce additional moves in these samplers to
improve mixing over cluster labels and to bring
clusters into correspondence. An application to
modeling of storm trajectories is used to illustrate
these ideas.

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Distributed inference methods developed for graphical models comprise a principled
approach for data fusion in sensor networks. The application of these methods, however,
requires some care due to a number of issues that are particular to sensor networks.
Chief of among these are the distributed nature of computation and
deployment coupled with communications bandwidth and energy constraints typical
of many sensor networks. Additionally, information sharing in a sensor network necessarily
involves approximation. Traditional measures of distortion are not sufficient to characterize the
quality of approximation as they do not address in an explicit manner the resulting impact on inference
which is at the core of many data fusion problems. While both graphical models and a distributed
sensor network have network structures associated with them, the mapping is not one to one.
All of these issues complicate the mapping of a particular inference problem to a given sensor network
structure. Indeed, there may be a variety of mappings with very different characteristics with
regard to computational complexity and utilization of resources. Nevertheless, it is the case that
many of the powerful distributed inference methods have a role in information fusion for sensor
networks. In this article we present an overview of research conducted by the authors that has
sought to clarify many of the important issues at the intersection
of these domains. We discuss both theoretical issues and prototypical
applications in addition to suggesting new lines of reasoning.

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Time-series of count data are generated in many different contexts, such as web access logging, freeway traffic monitoring, and security logs associated with buildings. Since this data measures the aggregated behavior of individual human beings, it typically exhibits a periodicity in time on a number of scales (daily, weekly,etc.) that reflects the rhythms of the underlying human activity and makes the data appear non-homogeneous. At the same time, the data is often corrupted by a number of bursty periods of unusual behavior such as building events, traffic accidents, and so forth. The data mining problem of finding and extracting these anomalous events is made difficult by both of these elements. In this paper we describe a framework for unsupervised learning in this context, based on a time-varying Poisson process model that can also account for anomalous events. We show how the parameters of this model can be learned from count time series using statistical estimation techniques. We demonstrate the utility of this model on two datasets for which we have partial ground truth in the form of known events, one from freeway traffic data and another from building access data, and show that the model performs significantly better than a non-probabilistic, threshold-based technique. We also describe how the model can be used to investigate different degrees of periodicity in the data, including systematic day-of-week and time-of-day effects, and make inferences about the detected events (e.g., popularity or level of attendance). Our experimental results indicate that the proposed time-varying Poisson model provides a robust and accurate framework for adaptively and autonomously learning how to separate unusual bursty events from traces of normal human activity.

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Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped
events or counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer
interaction, video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a
non-parametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In
particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity
functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing
individual time-periods (e.g., several days) depending on which categories
the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven
fashion what factors are generating the observations on a particular day, including
(for example) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding
to unique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information
where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated
with each category. Applications to realworld data sets of count data involving
both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.

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In data assimilation for a system which evolves in time, one combines past and current observations with a model of the dynamics of the system, in order to improve the simulation of the system as well as any future predictions about it. From a statistical point of view, this process can be regarded as estimating many random variables which are related both spatially and temporally: given observations of some of these variables, typically corresponding to times past, we require estimates of several others, typically corresponding to future times.

Graphical models have emerged as an effective formalism for assisting in these types of inference tasks, particularly for large numbers of
random variables. Graphical models provide a means of representing dependency structure among the variables, and can provide both intuition
and efficiency in estimation and other inference computations. We provide an overview and introduction to graphical models, and describe how
they can be used to represent statistical dependency and how the resulting structure can be used to organize computation. The relation between
statistical inference using graphical models and optimal sequential estimation algorithms such as Kalman filtering is discussed. We then give
several additional examples of how graphical models can be applied to climate dynamics, specifically estimation using multi-resolution models of
large-scale data sets such as satellite imagery, and learning hidden Markov models to capture rainfall patterns in space and time.

[ BibTex ] | [ PDF ] | [ Link ]

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The belief propagation algorithm is widely applied to perform
approximate inference on arbitrary graphical models, in part due to
its excellent empirical properties and performance. However, little
is known theoretically about when this algorithm will perform well.
Using recent analysis of convergence and stability properties in
belief propagation and new results on approximations in binary
systems, we derive a bound on the error in BP's estimates for
pairwise Markov random fields over discrete--valued random variables.
Our bound is relatively simple to compute, and compares favorably
with a previous method for bounding the accuracy of
belief propagation.

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Knowledge of the number of people in a building at a given time is
crucial for applications such as emergency response. Sensors can be
used to gather noisy measurements which when combined, can be used
to make inferences about the location, movement and density of
people. In this paper we describe a probabilistic model for
predicting the occupancy of a building using networks of
people-counting sensors. This model provides robust predictions
given typical sensor noise as well as missing and corrupted data
from malfunctioning sensors. We experimentally validate the model
by comparing it to a baseline method using real data from a network
of optical counting sensors in a campus building.

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Motivated by stochastic systems in which observed evidence and
conditional dependencies between states of the network change over
time, and certain quantities of interest (marginal distributions,
likelihood estimates etc.) must be updated, we study the problem of
\emph{adaptive inference} in tree-structured Bayesian networks. We
describe an algorithm for adaptive inference that handles a broad
range of changes to the network and is able to maintain marginal
distributions, MAP estimates, and data likelihoods in all expected
logarithmic time. We give an implementation of our algorithm and
provide experiments that show that the algorithm can yield up to two
orders of magnitude speedups on answering queries and responding to
dynamic changes over the sum-product algorithm.

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Time-series of count data occur in many different contexts, including Internet navigation logs, freeway traffic monitoring, and security logs associated with buildings. In this article we describe a framework for detecting anomalous events in such data using an unsupervised learning approach. Normal periodic behavior is modeled via a time-varying Poisson process model, which in turn is modulated by a hidden Markov process that accounts for bursty events. We outline a Bayesian framework for learning the parameters of this model from count time-series. Two large real-world datasets of time-series counts are used as testbeds to validate the approach, consisting of freeway traffic data and logs of people entering and exiting a building. We show that the proposed model is significantly more accurate at detecting known events than a more traditional threshold-based technique. We also describe how the model can be used to investigate different degrees of periodicity in the data, including systematic day-of-week and time-of-day effects, and to make inferences about different aspects of events such as number of vehicles or people involved. The results indicate that the Markov-modulated Poisson framework provides a robust and accurate framework for adaptively and autonomously learning how to separate unusual bursty events from traces of normal human activity.

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Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving
variations of the same inference problem; for example we may want to
introduce new evidence to the model or perform updates to
conditional dependencies. The goal of \emph{adaptive inference} is
to take advantage of what is preserved in the model and perform
inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we
describe techniques for adaptive inference on general graphs that
support marginal computation and updates to the conditional
probabilities and dependencies in logarithmic time. We give
experimental results for an implementation of our algorithm, and
demonstrate its potential performance benefit in the study of
protein structure.

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In this paper we introduce a novel collapsed Gibbs sampling method for the
widely used latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model. Our
new method results in significant speedups on real world text
corpora. Conventional Gibbs sampling schemes for LDA require
O(K) operations per sample where K is the number of
topics in the model. Our proposed method draws equivalent
samples but requires on average significantly less then K operations per sample.
On real-word corpora FastLDA can be as much as 8
times faster than the standard collapsed Gibbs sampler for LDA. No approximations are
necessary, and we show that our fast sampling
scheme produces exactly the same results as the standard
(but slower) sampling scheme. Experiments on four real world
data sets demonstrate speedups for a wide range of
collection sizes. For the PubMed collection of over 8 million
documents with a required computation time of 6 CPU months for LDA,
our speedup of 5.7 can save 5 CPU months of computation.

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Real-world sensor time series are often significantly noisier
and more difficult to work with than the relatively clean
data sets that tend to be used as the basis for experiments
in many research papers. In this paper we report on a large
case-study involving statistical data mining of over 300 million
measurements from 1700 freeway traffic sensors over a
period of seven months in Southern California. We discuss
the challenges posed by the wide variety of different sensor
failures and anomalies present in the data. The volume and
complexity of the data precludes the use of manual
visualization or simple thresholding techniques to identify these
anomalies. We describe the application of probabilistic
modeling and unsupervised learning techniques to this data set
and illustrate how these approaches can successfully detect
underlying systematic patterns even in the presence of
substantial noise and missing data

[ BibTex ] | [ PDF ] | [ Link ]

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The popularity of particle filtering for inference in Markov chain
models defined over random variables with very large or continuous
domains makes it natural to consider sample--based versions of belief
propagation (BP) for more general (tree--structured or loopy) graphs.
Already, several such algorithms have been proposed in the
literature. However, many questions remain open about the behavior
of particle--based BP algorithms, and little theory
has been developed to analyze their performance.
In this paper, we describe a generic particle belief propagation (PBP)
algorithm which is closely related to previously proposed methods.
We prove that this algorithm is consistent, approaching the true BP
messages as the number of samples grows large.
We then use concentration bounds to analyze the finite-sample
behavior and give a convergence rate for the algorithm on
tree--structured graphs. Our convergence rate is $O(1/\sqrt{n})$
where $n$ is the number of samples, independent of the domain size
of the variables.

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The hair follicle renews itself by repeatedly cycling among growth, regression,
and rest phases. One function of hair follicle cycling is to allow seasonal
changes in hair growth. Understanding the regulation of hair follicle cycling
is also of interest because abnormal regulation of hair cycle control genes is
responsible for several types of human hair growth disorders and skin cancers.
We report here that *Clock* and *Bmal1* genes,
which control circadian rhythms, are also important for the regulation of hair
follicle cycling, a biological process of much longer duration than 24 hours.
Detailed analysis of skin from mice mutated for central clock genes indicates a
significant delay in the progression of the hair growth phase. We show that
clock genes affect the expression of key cell cycle control genes and that
keratinocytes in a critical compartment of the hair follicles in
*Bmal1* mutant mice are halted in the G1 phase of the cell
cycle. These findings provide novel insight into circadian control mechanisms
in modulating the progression of cyclic biological processes on different time
scales.

[ BibTex ] | [ PDF ] | [ Link ]

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Many applications involve repeatedly computing the optimal, maximum
*a posteriori* (MAP) configuration of a graphical model as the
model changes, often slowly or incrementally over time, e.g., due to
input from a user.
Small changes to the model often require
updating only a small fraction of the MAP configuration, suggesting
the possibility of performing updates faster than recomputing from
scratch.
In this paper we present an algorithm for efficiently performing such
updates under arbitrary changes to the model.
Our algorithm is within a logarithmic factor of the optimal and is
asymptotically never slower than re-computing from-scratch: if a
modification to the model requires $m$ updates to the MAP
configuration of $n$ random variables, then our algorithm requires
$O(m\log{(n/m)})$ time; re-computing from scratch requires $O(n)$
time.
We evaluate the practical effectiveness of our algorithm by
considering two problems in genomic signal processing, CpG region
segmentation and protein sidechain packing, where a MAP configuration
must be repeatedly updated. Our results show significant speedups
over recomputing from scratch.

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The recent work of Sommer, Feder and Shalvi presented a new family of codes called low density lattice codes (LDLC)
that can be decoded efficiently and approach the capacity of the AWGN channel. A linear time iterative decoding
scheme which is based on a message-passing formulation on a factor graph is given.

In the current work we report our theoretical findings regarding the relation between the LDLC decoder and belief propagation. We show that the LDLC decoder is an instance of non-parametric belief propagation and further connect it to the Gaussian belief propagation algorithm. Our new results enable borrowing knowledge from the non-parametric and Gaussian belief propagation domains into the LDLC domain. Specifically, we give more general convergence conditions for convergence of the LDLC decoder (under the same assumptions of the original LDLC convergence analysis). We discuss how to extend the LDLC decoder from Latin square to full rank, non-square matrices. We propose an efficient construction of sparse generator matrix and its matching decoder. We report preliminary experimental results which show our decoder has comparable symbol to error rate compared to the original LDLC decoder.

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Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a popular algorithm for discovering structure in
large collections of text or other data. Although its complexity is linear in the data
size, its use on increasingly massive collections has created considerable interest in
parallel implementations. ``Approximate distributed'' LDA, or AD-LDA,
approximates the popular collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm for LDA models while
running on a distributed architecture. Although this algorithm often appears to perform well
in practice, its quality is not well understood or easily assessed. In this work, we
provide some theoretical justification of the algorithm, and modify AD-LDA to track an
error bound on its performance. Specifically, we upper-bound the probability of making
a sampling error at each step of the algorithm (compared to an exact, sequential Gibbs sampler),
given the samples drawn thus far. We show empirically that our bound is sufficiently tight to give
a meaningful
and intuitive measure of approximation error in AD-LDA, allowing the user to understand the
trade-off between accuracy and efficiency.

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Since the development of loopy belief propagation, there has been considerable
work on advancing the state of the art for approximate inference over
distributions defined on discrete random variables. Improvements include
guarantees of convergence, approximations that are provably more accurate, and
bounds on the results of exact inference. However, extending these methods to
continuous-valued systems has lagged behind. While several methods have been
developed to use belief propagation on systems with continuous values, recent
advances for discrete variables have not as yet been incorporated.
In this context we extend a recently proposed particle-based belief propagation
algorithm to provide a general framework for adapting discrete message-passing
algorithms to inference in continuous systems. The resulting
algorithms behave similarly to their purely discrete counterparts, extending
the benefits of these more advanced inference techniques to the continuous
domain.

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**Motivation:** Cyclical biological processes such as cell division and circadian regulation produce coordinated periodic expression of thousands of genes. Identification of such genes and their expression patterns is a crucial step in discovering underlying regulatory mechanisms. Existing computational methods are biased toward discovering genes that follow sine-wave patterns.

**Results:** We present an analysis of variance (ANOVA) periodicity detector and its Bayesian extension that can be used to discover periodic transcripts of arbitrary shapes from replicated gene expression profiles. The models are applicable when the profiles are collected at comparable time points for at least two cycles. We provide an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating parameters of the prior distributions and derive closed-form expressions for the posterior probability of periodicity, enabling efficient computation. The model is applied to two datasets profiling circadian regulation in murine liver and skeletal muscle, revealing a substantial number of previously undetected non-sinusoidal periodic transcripts in each. We also apply quantitative real-time PCR to several highly ranked non-sinusoidal transcripts in liver tissue found by the model, providing independent evidence of circadian regulation of these genes.

**Availability:** MATLAB software for estimating prior distributions and performing inference is available for download from http://www.datalab.uci.edu/resources/periodicity/.

**Contact:** dchudova@gmail.com

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**Motivation:** Time-course gene expression datasets provide important insights into dynamic aspects of biological processes, such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle and organ development. In a typical microarray time-course experiment, measurements are obtained at each time point from multiple replicate samples. Accurately recovering the gene expression patterns from experimental observations is made challenging by both measurement noise and variation among replicates' rates of development. Prior work on this topic has focused on inference of expression patterns assuming that the replicate times are synchronized. We develop a statistical approach that simultaneously infers both (i) the underlying (hidden) expression profile for each gene, as well as (ii) the biological time for each individual replicate. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) combined with a probabilistic model that accounts for uncertainty about the biological development time of each replicate.

**Results:** We apply GPR with uncertain measurement times to a microarray dataset of mRNA expression for the hair-growth cycle in mouse back skin, predicting both profile shapes and biological times for each replicate. The predicted time shifts show high consistency with independently obtained morphological estimates of relative development. We also show that the method systematically reduces prediction error on out-of-sample data, significantly reducing the mean squared error in a cross-validation study.

**Availability:** Matlab code for GPR with uncertain time shifts is available at http://sli.ics.uci.edu/Code/GPRTimeshift/

**Contact:** ihler@ics.uci.edu

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Composite likelihood methods provide a wide spectrum of computationally efficient
techniques for statistical tasks such as parameter estimation and model selection.
In this paper, we present a formal connection between the optimization of composite
likelihoods and the well-known contrastive divergence algorithm. In particular, we
show that composite likelihoods can be stochastically optimized by performing a
variant of contrastive divergence with random-scan blocked Gibbs sampling. By using
higher-order composite likelihoods, our proposed learning framework makes it
possible to trade off computation time for increased accuracy. Furthermore, one can
choose composite likelihood blocks that match the model's dependence structure,
making the optimization of higher-order composite likelihoods computationally
efficient. We empirically analyze the performance of blocked contrastive
divergence on various models, including visible Boltzmann machines, conditional
random fields, and exponential random graph models, and we demonstrate that using
higher-order blocks improves both the accuracy of parameter estimates and the rate
of convergence.

| |

Learning undirected graphical models such as Markov random fields is an
important machine learning task with applications in many domains.
Since it is usually intractable to learn these models exactly, various
approximate learning techniques have been developed, such as contrastive
divergence (CD) and Markov chain Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation
(MCMC-MLE). In this paper, we introduce particle filtered MCMC-MLE, which is
a sampling-importance-resampling version of MCMC-MLE with
additional MCMC rejuvenation steps.
We also describe a unified view of (1) MCMC-MLE, (2) our particle filtering approach,
and (3) a stochastic approximation procedure known as persistent contrastive
divergence. We show how these approaches are related to each other
and discuss the relative merits of each approach.
Empirical results on various undirected models demonstrate that
the particle filtering technique we propose in this paper
can significantly outperform MCMC-MLE. Furthermore, in certain
cases, the proposed technique is faster than persistent CD.

| |

Many computer vision problems involving feature correspondence among images can
be formulated as an assignment problem with a quadratic cost function. Such
problems are computationally infeasible in general but recent advances in
discrete optimization such as tree-reweighted belief propagation (TRW)
often provide high-quality solutions. In this paper, we improve upon
these algorithms in two ways. First, we introduce covering trees, a variant of
TRW which provide the same bounds on the MAP energy as TRW with far fewer
variational parameters. Optimization of these parameters can be carried out
efficiently using either fixed--point iterations (as in TRW) or sub-gradient
based techniques. Second, we introduce a new technique that utilizes bipartite
matching applied to the min-marginals produced with covering trees in order to
compute a tighter lower-bound for the quadratic assignment problem. We apply
this machinery to the problem of finding correspondences with pairwise energy
functions, and demonstrate the resulting hybrid method outperforms TRW alone
and a recent related subproblem decomposition algorithm on benchmark image
correspondence problems.

| |

We introduce a new class of lower bounds on the log partition function of a
Markov random field which makes use of a reversed Jensen's inequality.
In particular, our method approximates the intractable distribution using
a linear combination of spanning trees with negative weights. This technique
is a lower-bound counterpart to the tree-reweighted belief propagation algorithm,
which uses a convex combination of spanning trees with positive weights to
provide corresponding upper bounds. We develop algorithms to optimize and
tighten the lower bounds over the non-convex set of valid parameter values.
Our algorithm generalizes mean field approaches (including na\"ive and
structured mean field approximations), which it includes as a limiting case.

| |

Continuous quantities are ubiquitous in models of real-world phenomena,
but are surprisingly difficult to reason about automatically. Probabilistic
graphical models such as Bayesian networks and Markov random fields,
and algorithms for approximate inference such as belief propagation,
have proven to be powerful
tools in a wide range of applications in statistics and artificial intelligence.
However, applying these methods to models with continuous variables remains
a challenging task. In this work we describe an extension of belief propagation
to continuous variable models, generalizing particle filtering and Gaussian mixture
filtering techniques for time series to more complex models. We illustrate the
power of the resulting nonparametric belief propagation algorithm via two applications:
kinematic tracking of visual motion and distributed localization in sensor networks.

| |

Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a popular algorithm for discovering semantic structure in
large collections of text or other data. Although its complexity is linear in the data
size, its use on increasingly massive collections has created considerable interest in
parallel implementations. ``Approximate distributed'' LDA, or AD-LDA,
approximates the popular collapsed Gibbs sampling algorithm for LDA models while
running on a distributed architecture. Although this algorithm often appears to perform well
in practice, its quality is not well understood theoretically or easily assessed on new data. In this work, we
theoretically justify the approximation, and modify AD-LDA to track an
error bound on performance. Specifically, we upper-bound the probability of making
a sampling error at each step of the algorithm (compared to an exact, sequential Gibbs sampler),
given the samples drawn thus far. We show empirically that our bound is sufficiently tight to give
a meaningful
and intuitive measure of approximation error in AD-LDA, allowing the user to track the
trade-off between accuracy and efficiency while executing in parallel.

[ BibTex ] | [ PDF ] | [ Link ]

| |

Given a graphical model, one of the most useful queries is to find the most
likely configuration of its variables. This task, known as the maximum a
posteriori (MAP) problem, can be solved efficiently via message passing
techniques when the graph is a tree, but is NP-hard for general graphs.
Jebara (2009) shows that the MAP problem can be converted into the
stable set problem, which can be solved in polynomial time for a broad class of
graphs known as perfect graphs via a linear programming relaxation technique.
This is a result of great theoretical interest. However, the article
additionally claims that max-product linear programming (MPLP) message passing
techniques of Globerson & Jaakkola (2007) are also guaranteed to solve these
problems exactly and efficiently. We investigate this claim, show that it does
not hold in general, and attempt to repair it with several alternative message
passing algorithms.

| |

Multicore computing is on the rise, but algorithms such as Gibbs sampling are
fundamentally sequential and may require close consideration to be made
parallel. Existing techniques either exploit sparse problem structure or make
approximations to the algorithm; in this work, we explore an alternative to
these ideas. We develop a parallel Gibbs sampling algorithm for shared-memory
systems that does not require any independence structure among the variables
yet does not approximate the sampling distributions. Our method uses a
look-ahead sampler, which uses bounds to attempt to sample variables before the
results of other threads are made available. We demonstrate our algorithm on
Gibbs sampling in Boltzmann machines and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). We
show in experiments that our algorithm achieves near linear speed-up in the
number of cores, is faster than existing exact samplers, and is nearly as fast
as approximate samplers while maintaining the correct stationary distribution.

| |

Methods for L1-type regularization have been widely used in Gaussian
graphical model selection tasks to encourage sparse structures. However, often
we would like to include more structural information than mere sparsity. In
this work, we focus on learning so-called ``scale-free'' models, a common
feature that appears in many real-work networks. We replace the L1
regularization with a power law regularization and optimize the objective
function by a sequence of iteratively reweighted L1 regularization
problems, where the regularization coefficients of nodes with high degree are
reduced, encouraging the appearance of hubs with high degree. Our method can be
easily adapted to improve *any* existing L1-based methods, such as
graphical lasso, neighborhood selection, and JSRM when the underlying networks
are believed to be scale free or have dominating hubs. We demonstrate in
simulation that our method significantly outperforms the a baseline L1
method at learning scale-free networks and hub networks, and also illustrate
its behavior on gene expression data.

| |

We consider the problem of identifying a pattern of faults from a set of noisy
linear measurements. Unfortunately, maximum a posteriori probability
estimation of the fault pattern is computationally intractable. To solve the
fault identification problem, we propose a non-parametric belief propagation
approach. We show empirically that our belief propagation solver is more
accurate than recent state-of-the-art algorithms including interior point
methods and semidefinite programming. Our superior performance is explained by
the fact that we take into account both the binary nature of the individual
faults and the sparsity of the fault pattern arising from their rarity.

| |

We describe an algorithm for approximate inference in graphical models based on
H\"older's inequality that provides upper and lower bounds on common summation
problems such as computing the partition function or probability of evidence
in a graphical model.
Our algorithm unifies and extends several existing approaches,
including variable elimination techniques such as mini-bucket elimination and
variational methods such tree reweighted belief propagation and
conditional entropy decomposition.
We show that our method inherits benefits from each approach
to provide significantly better bounds on sum-product tasks.

| |

Dual-decomposition (DD) methods are quickly becoming important tools
for estimating the minimum energy state of a graphical model. DD
methods decompose a complex model into a collection of simpler
subproblems that can be solved exactly (such as trees), that in
combination provide upper and lower bounds on the exact solution.
Subproblem choice can play a major role:
larger subproblems tend to improve the bound more per iteration,
while smaller subproblems enable highly parallel solvers and can
benefit from re-using past solutions when there are few changes
between iterations.
We propose an algorithm that can balance many of these aspects to
speed up convergence. Our method uses a cluster tree
data structure that has been proposed for adaptive exact inference
tasks, and we apply it in this paper to dual-decomposition
approximate inference. This approach allows us to process large
subproblems to improve the bounds at each iteration, while allowing
a high degree of parallelizability and taking advantage of
subproblems with sparse updates.
For both synthetic inputs and a real-world stereo matching problem,
we demonstrate that our algorithm is able to achieve significant
improvement in convergence time.

| |

We describe a new technique for computing lower-bounds on the minimum energy
configuration of a planar Markov Random Field (MRF). Our method successively
adds large numbers of constraints and enforces consistency over binary
projections of the original problem state space. These constraints are
represented in terms of subproblems in a dual-decomposition framework that is
optimized using subgradient techniques. The complete set of constraints we
consider enforces cycle consistency over the original graph. In practice we
find that the method converges quickly on most problems with the addition of a
few subproblems and outperforms existing methods for some interesting classes
of hard potentials.

| |

We describe a new variational lower-bound on the minimum energy configuration
of a planar binary Markov Random Field (MRF). Our method is based on adding
auxiliary nodes to every face of a planar embedding of the graph in order to
capture the effect of unary potentials. A ground state of the resulting
approximation can be computed efficiently by reduction to minimum-weight
perfect matching. We show that optimization of variational parameters achieves
the same lower-bound as dual-decomposition into the set of all cycles of the
original graph. We demonstrate that our variational optimization converges
quickly and provides high-quality solutions to hard combinatorial problems
10-100x faster than competing algorithms that optimize the same bound.

| |

Marginal MAP problems are notoriously difficult tasks for graphical models. We
derive a general variational framework for solving marginal MAP problems,
in which we apply analogues of the Bethe, tree-reweighted, and mean field approximations.
We then derive a ``mixed" message passing algorithm and a convergent
alternative using CCCP to solve the BP-type approximations. Theoretically, we
give conditions under which the decoded solution is a global or local optimum,
and obtain novel upper bounds on solutions.
Experimentally we demonstrate that our algorithms outperform related approaches.
We also show that EM and variational EM comprise
a special case of our framework.

| |

Many algorithms and applications involve repeatedly solving
variations of the same inference problem, for example to introduce
new evidence to the model or to change conditional dependencies. As
the model is updated, the goal of \emph{adaptive inference} is to
take advantage of previously computed quantities to perform
inference more rapidly than from scratch. In this paper, we present
algorithms for adaptive exact inference on general graphs that can
be used to efficiently compute marginals and update MAP
configurations under arbitrary changes to the input factor graph and
its associated elimination tree. After a linear time preprocessing
step, our approach enables updates to the model and the computation
of any marginal in time that is logarithmic in the size of the input
model. Moreover, in contrast to max-product our approach can also be
used to update MAP configurations in time that is roughly
proportional to the number of updated entries, rather than the size
of the input model.
To evaluate the practical effectiveness of our
algorithms, we implement and test them using synthetic data as well as
for two real-world computational biology applications. Our experiments show that
adaptive inference can achieve substantial speedups over performing
complete inference as the model undergoes small changes over time.

| |

We investigate a hybrid of two styles of algorithms for deriving bounds for
optimization tasks over graphical models: non-iterative message-passing schemes
exploiting variable duplication to reduce cluster sizes (e.g. MBE) and iterative
methods that re-parameterize the problem's functions aiming to produce good
bounds even if functions are processed independently (e.g. MPLP). In this work
we combine both ideas, augmenting MBE with re-parameterization, which we call
MBE with Moment Matching (MBE-MM). The results of preliminary empirical
evaluations show the clear promise of the hybrid scheme over its individual com-
ponents (e.g., pure MBE and pure MPLP). Most significantly, we demonstrate the
potential of the new bounds in improving the power of mechanically generated
heuristics for branch and bound search.

| |

Estimating statistical models within sensor networks requires distributed
algorithms, in which both data and computation are distributed across the nodes
of the network. We propose a general approach for distributed learning based on
combining local estimators defined by pseudo-likelihood components,
encompassing a number of combination methods, and provide both theoretical and
experimental analysis. We show that simple linear combination or max-voting
methods, when combined with second-order information, are statistically
competitive with more advanced and costly joint optimization. Our algorithms
have many attractive properties including low communication and computational
cost and "any-time" behavior.

| |

We study the marginal-MAP problem on graphical models, and present a novel
approximation method based on direct approximation of the sum operation. A
primary difficulty of marginal-MAP problems lies in the non-commutativity of
the sum and max operations, so that even in highly structured models,
marginalization may produce a densely connected graph over the variables to be
maximized, resulting in an intractable potential function with exponential
size. We propose a chain decomposition approach for summing over the
marginalized variables, in which we produce a structured approximation to the
MAP component of the problem consisting of only pairwise potentials. We show
that this approach is equivalent to the maximization of a specific variational
free energy, and it provides an upper bound of the optimal probability.
Finally, experimental results demonstrate that our method performs favorably
compared to previous methods.

| |

The role of the circadian clock in skin and the identity of genes participating
in its chronobiology remain largely unknown, leading us to define the circadian
transcriptome of mouse skin at two different stages of the hair cycle, telogen
and anagen. The circadian transcriptomes of telogen and anagen skin are largely
distinct, with the former dominated by genes involved in cell proliferation and
metabolism. The expression of many metabolic genes is antiphasic to cell
cycle-related genes, the former peaking during the day and the latter at night.
Consistently, accumulation of reactive oxygen species, a byproduct of oxidative
phosphorylation, and S-phase are antiphasic to each other in telogen skin.
Furthermore, the circadian variation in S-phase is controlled by BMAL1
intrinsic to keratinocytes, because keratinocyte-specific deletion of Bmal1
obliterates time-of-day–dependent synchronicity of cell division in the
epidermis leading to a constitutively elevated cell proliferation. In agreement
with higher cellular susceptibility to UV-induced DNA damage during S-phase, we
found that mice are most sensitive to UVB-induced DNA damage in the epidermis
at night. Because in the human epidermis maximum numbers of keratinocytes go
through S-phase in the late afternoon, we speculate that in humans the
circadian clock imposes regulation of epidermal cell proliferation so that skin
is at a particularly vulnerable stage during times of maximum UV exposure, thus
contributing to the high incidence of human skin cancers.

| |

The track-oriented multiple hypothesis tracker is currently the preferred
method for tracking multiple targets in clutter with medium to high
computational resources. This method maintains a structured representation of
the track posterior distribution, which it repeatedly extends and optimizes
over. This representation of the posterior admits probabilistic inference
tasks beyond MAP estimation that have yet to be explored. To this end we
formulate the posterior as a graphical model and show that belief propagation
can be used to approximate the track marginals. These approximate marginals
enable an online parameter estimation scheme that improves tracker performance
in the presence of parameter misspecification.

| |

We develop several algorithms taking advantage of two common approaches for
bounding MPE queries in graphical models: mini-bucket elimination and
message-passing updates for linear programming relaxations. Both methods are
quite similar, and offer useful perspectives for the other; our hybrid
approaches attempt to balance the advantages of each. We demonstrate the power
of our hybrid algorithms through extensive empirical evaluation. Most notably,
a Branch and Bound search guided by the heuristic function calculated by one of
our new algorithms has recently won first place in the PASCAL2 inference
challenge.

| |

We introduce a new cluster-cumulant expansion (CCE) based on the fixed points
of iterative belief propagation (IBP). This expansion is similar in spirit to
the loop-series (LS) recently introduced in Chertkov and Chernyak (2006). However,
in contrast to the latter, the CCE enjoys the following important qualities: 1)
it is defined for arbitrary state spaces 2) it is easily extended to fixed
points of generalized belief propagation (GBP), 3) disconnected groups of
variables will not contribute to the CCE and 4) the accuracy of the expansion
empirically improves upon that of the LS. The CCE is based on the same
Mobius transform as the Kikuchi approximation, but unlike GBP does not
require storing the beliefs of the GBP-clusters nor does it suffer from
convergence issues during belief updating.

| |

Variational inference algorithms such as belief propagation have had tremendous
impact on our ability to learn and use graphical models, and give many insights
for developing or understanding exact and approximate inference. However,
variational approaches have not been widely adoped for *decision making*
in graphical models, often formulated through influence diagrams and including
both centralized and decentralized (or multi-agent) decisions. In this work,
we present a general variational framework for solving structured cooperative decision-making
problems, use it to propose several belief propagation-like algorithms, and
analyze them both theoretically and empirically.

| |

We describe a new optimization scheme for finding high-quality correlation
clusterings in planar graphs that uses weighted perfect matching as a
subroutine. Our method provides lower-bounds on the energy of the optimal
correlation clustering that are typically fast to compute and tight in
practice. We demonstrate our algorithm on the problem of image segmentation
where this approach outperforms existing global optimization techniques in
minimizing the objective and is competitive with the state of the art in
producing high-quality segmentations.

| |

Crowdsourcing has become a popular paradigm for labeling large datasets.
However, it has given rise to the computational task of aggregating the
crowdsourced labels provided by a collection of unreliable annotators. We
approach this problem by transforming it into a standard inference problem in
graphical models, and applying approximate variational methods, including
belief propagation (BP) and mean field (MF). We show that our BP algorithm
generalizes both majority voting and a recent algorithm by Karger et al.
(2011), while our MF method is closely related to a commonly used EM algorithm.
In both case, we find that the performance of the algorithms critically depends
on the choice of a prior distribution on the workers' reliability; by choosing
the prior properly, both BP and MF (and EM) perform surprisingly well on both
simulated and real-world datasets, competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms
based on more complicated modeling assumptions.

| |

This paper describes our entry for the MAP/MPE track of the PASCAL 2011
Probabilistic Inference Challenge, which placed first in all three time limit
categories, 20 seconds, 20 minutes, and 1 hour. Our baseline is a branch-and-bound
algorithm that explores the AND/OR context-minimal search graph of a graphical
model guided by a mini-bucket heuristic. Augmented with recent advances that
convert the algorithm into an anytime scheme, that improve the heuristic power
via cost-shifting schemes, and using enhanced variable ordering schemes, it
constitutes one of the most powerful MAP/MPE inference methods to date.

| |

Earlier work has explored enhancing the perceived resolution of a display by
shifting multiple different low-resolution images by fractions of a pixel and
overlaying them in a temporally multiplexed fashion. This increases the
manufacturing cost and also sacrifices the temporal resolution that can
compromise other capabilities like 3D active stereo. In this paper we propose a
method to achieve the same goal in projectors by performing the pixel shift and
superposition optically by introducing a simple and inexpensive optical
ensemble of a set of lenses on the projector light path. This does not
sacrifice the temporal resolution and is extremely easy to implement in
practice.
However, instead of overlaying different images, we overlay an image with one
or more sub-pixel shifted copies of itself. Therefore, we seek a single n × n
image which when shifted and overlaid with itself creates a perceptually closer
to a higher resolution 2n × 2n target image. This changes the optimization
formulation significantly and requires solving a system of sparse linear
equations. We take advantage of this sparsity and design a parallel
implementation of this optimization in GPUs for real-time computation of the
input image critical for its practical implementation. But, since this system
is more constrained that using multiple overlaid images, the enhancement of
resolution is compromised. However, since the optical design is very simple
and inexpensive, it can be deployed on a variety of low-cost projectors and
still offer a significant image quality benefit.

| |

The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which
calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of
variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference
problem in many models, such as those with hidden variables or uncertain
parameters. Unfortunately, marginal MAP can be NP-hard even on trees, and has
attracted less attention in the literature compared to the joint MAP
(maximization) and marginalization problems. We derive a general dual
representation for marginal MAP that naturally integrates the marginalization
and maximization operations into a joint variational optimization problem,
making it possible to easily extend most or all variational-based algorithms to
marginal MAP. In particular, we derive a set of “mixed-product" message passing
algorithms for marginal MAP, whose form is a hybrid of max-product, sum-product
and a novel “argmax-product" message updates. We also derive a class of
convergent algorithms based on proximal point methods, including one that
transforms the marginal MAP problem into a sequence of standard marginalization
problems. Theoretically, we provide guarantees under which our algorithms give
globally or locally optimal solutions, and provide novel upper bounds on the
optimal objectives. Empirically, we demonstrate that our algorithms
significantly outperform the existing approaches, including a state-of-the-art
algorithm based on local search methods.

[ BibTex ] | [ PDF ] | [ Link ]

| |

Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference is one of the fundamental inference tasks
in graphical models. MAP inference is in general NP-hard, making approximate
methods of interest for many problems. One successful class of approximate
inference algorithms is based on linear programming (LP) relaxations. The
augmented Lagrangian method can be used to overcome a lack of strict convexity
in LP relaxations, and the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM)
provides an elegant algorithm for finding the saddle point of the augmented
Lagrangian. Here we present an ADMM-based algorithm to solve the primal form of
the MAP-LP whose closed form updates are based on a linear approximation
technique. Our technique gives efficient, closed form updates that converge to
the global optimum of the LP relaxation. We compare our algorithm to two
existing ADMM-based MAP-LP methods, showing that our technique is faster on
general, non-binary or non-pairwise models.

| |

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are extremely useful for modeling and solving
sequential decision making problems. Graph-based MDPs provide a compact
representation for MDPs with large numbers of random variables. However, the
complexity of exactly solving a graph-based MDP usually grows exponentially in
the number of variables, which limits their application. We present a new
variational framework to describe and solve the planning problem of MDPs, and
derive both exact and approximate planning algorithms. In particular, by
exploiting the graph structure of graph-based MDPs, we propose a factored
variational value iteration algorithm in which the value function is first
approximated by the multiplication of local-scope value functions, then solved
by minimizing a Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. The KL divergence is
optimized using the belief propagation algorithm, with complexity exponential
in only the cluster size of the graph. Experimental comparison on different
models shows that our algorithm outperforms existing approximation algorithms
at finding good policies.

| |

We study the problem of estimating continuous quantities, such as prices,
probabilities, and point spreads, using a crowdsourcing approach. A
challenging aspect of combining the crowd's answers is that workers'
reliabilities and biases are usually unknown and highly diverse. Control items
with known answers can be used to evaluate workers' performance, and hence improve
the combined results on the target items with unknown answers. This raises the
problem of how many control items to use when the total number of items each workers can
answer is limited: more control items evaluates the workers better, but leaves
fewer resources for the target items that are of direct interest, and vice versa.
We give theoretical results for this problem under different scenarios, and
provide a simple rule of thumb for crowdsourcing practitioners. As a byproduct,
we also provide theoretical analysis of the accuracy of different
consensus methods.

| |

Maximum Likelihood learning of graphical models is not possible in problems
where inference is intractable. In such settings it is common to use
approximate inference (e.g. Loopy BP) and maximize the so-called ``surrogate''
likelihood objective. We examine the effect of using different
approximate inference methods and, therefore, different surrogate likelihoods,
on the accuracy of parameter estimation. In particular, we consider
methods that utilize a control parameter to trade
computation for accuracy. We demonstrate empirically that cheaper, but worse
quality approximate inference methods should be used in the small data setting
as they exhibit smaller variance and are more robust to model mis-specification.

| |

Functional brain imaging is a common tool in monitoring the progression of
neurodegenerative and neurological disorders. Identifying functional brain
imaging derived features that can accurately detect neurological disease is of
primary importance to the medical community. Research in computer vision
techniques to identify objects in photographs have reported high accuracies in
that domain, but their direct applicability to identifying disease in
functional imaging is still under investigation in the medical community. In
particular, Serre et al. (2005) introduced a biophysically inspired filtering
method emulating visual processing in striate cortex which they applied to
perform object recognition in photographs. In this work, the model described by
Serre et al. (2005) is extended to three-dimensional volumetric images to
perform signal detection in functional brain imaging (PET, SPECT). The filter
outputs are used to train both neural network and logistic regression
classifiers and tested on two distinct datasets: ADNI Alzheimer’s disease
2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) PET and National Football League players Tc99m HMPAO
SPECT. The filtering pipeline is analyzed to identify which steps are most
important for classification accuracy. Our results compare favorably with other
published classification results and outperform those of a blinded expert human
rater, suggesting the utility of this approach.

| |

The track-oriented multiple hypothesis tracker (TOMHT) is a popular algorithm
for tracking multiple targets in a cluttered environment. In tracking parlance
it is known as a multi-scan, maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator – multi-scan
because it enumerates possible data associations jointly over several scans,
and MAP because it seeks the most likely data association conditioned on the
observations. This paper extends the TOMHT, building on its internal
representation to support probabilistic queries other than MAP estimation.
Specifically, by summing over the TOMHT's pruned space of data association
hypotheses one can compute marginal probabilities of individual tracks. Since
this summation is generally intractable, any practical implementation must
replace it with an approximation. We introduce a factor graph representation
of the TOMHT’s data association posterior and use variational message-passing
to approximate track marginals. In an empirical evaluation, we show that
marginal estimates computed through message-passing compare favorably to those
computed through explicit summation over the k-best hypotheses, especially as
the number of possible hypotheses increases. We also show that track marginals
enable parameter estimation in the TOMHT via a natural extension of the
expectation maximization algorithm used in single-target tracking. In our
experiments, online EM updates using approximate marginals significantly
increased tracker robustness to poor initial parameter specification.

| |

In this work, we propose the marginal structured SVM (MSSVM) for structured
prediction with hidden variables. MSSVM properly accounts for the uncertainty
of hidden variables, and can significantly outperform the previously proposed
latent structured SVM (LSSVM; Yu & Joachims (2009)) and other state-of-art
methods, especially when that uncertainty is large. Our method also results
in a smoother objective function, making gradient-based optimization of MSSVMs
converge significantly faster than for LSSVMs. We also show that our method
consistently outperforms hidden conditional random fields (HCRFs; Quattoni et
al. (2007)) on both simulated and real-world datasets. Furthermore, we propose
a unified framework that includes both our and several other existing methods
as special cases, and provides insights into the comparison of different models
in practice.

| |

Marginal MAP problems are known to be very difficult tasks for graphical models
and are so far solved exactly by systematic search guided by a join-tree upper
bound. In this paper, we develop new AND/OR branch and bound algorithms for
marginal MAP that use heuristics extracted from weighted mini-buckets enhanced
with message-passing updates. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the resulting
search algorithms against previous join-tree based approaches, which we also
extend to apply to high induced width models, through extensive empirical
evaluations. Our results show not only orders-of-magnitude improvements over
the state-of-the-art, but also the ability to solve problem instances well
beyond the reach of previous approaches.

| |

We explore the use of iterative cost-shifting as a dynamic heuristic
generator for solving MPE in graphical models via Branch and Bound. When
mini-bucket elimination is limited by its memory budget, it may not provide
good heuristics. This can happen often when the graphical model has a
very high induced width with large variable domain sizes. In addition, we
explore a hybrid setup where both MBE and the iterative cost-shifting
bound are used in a combined heuristic. We compare these approaches with
the most advanced statically generated heuristics.

| |

Distributed learning of probabilistic models from multiple data repositories
with minimum communication is increasingly important. We study a simple
communication-efficient learning framework that first calculates the local
maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) based on the data subsets, and then combines
the local MLEs to achieve the best possible approximation to the global MLE
given the whole dataset. We study this framework's statistical properties,
showing that the efficiency loss compared to the global setting relates to how
much the underlying distribution families deviate from full exponential
families, drawing connection to the theory of information loss by Fisher, Rao
and Efron. We show that the ``full-exponential-family-ness" represents the
lower bound of the error rate of arbitrary combinations of local MLEs, and is
achieved by a KL-divergence-based combination method but not by a more common
linear combination method. We also study the empirical properties of both
methods, showing that the KL method significantly outperforms linear
combination in practical settings with issues such as model misspecification,
non-convexity, and heterogeneous data partitions.

| |

Marginal MAP is known to be a difficult task for graphical models,
particularly because the evaluation of each MAP assignment involves
a conditional likelihood computation. In order to minimize the
number of likelihood evaluations, we focus in this paper on
best-first search strategies for exploring the space of partial MAP
assignments. We analyze the potential relative benefits of several
best-first search algorithms and demonstrate their effectiveness
against recent branch and bound schemes through extensive empirical
evaluations. Our results show that best-first search improves
significantly over existing depth-first approaches, in many cases by
several orders of magnitude, especially when guided by relatively
weak heuristics.

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Crowdsourcing provides a cheap but efficient approach for large-scale data and
information collection.
However, human judgments are inherently noisy, ambiguous and sometimes biased,
and should be calibrated by additional (usually much more expensive) expert or
true labels. % expert or In this work, we study the optimal allocation of the
true labels to best calibrate the crowdsourced labels. We frame the problem as
a submodular optimization, and propose a greedy allocation strategy that
exhibits an interesting trade-off between a

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Region choice is a key issue for many approximate inference bounds.
Mini-bucket elimination avoids the space and time complexity of exact inference
by using a top-down partitioning approach that mimics the construction of a
junction tree and aims to minimize the number of regions subject to a bound on
their size; however, these methods rarely take into account functions' values.
In contrast, message passing algorithms often use "cluster pursuit" methods to
select regions, a bottom-up approach in which a pre-defined set of clusters
(such as triplets) is scored and incrementally added. In this work, we develop
a hybrid approach that balances the advantages of both perspectives, providing
larger regions chosen in an intelligent, energy-based way. Our method is
applicable to bounds on a variety of inference tasks, and we demonstrate its
power empirically on a broad array of problem types.

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Importance sampling (IS) and its variant, annealed IS (AIS) have been widely
used for estimating the partition function in graphical models, such as Markov
random fields and deep generative models. However, IS tends to underestimate
the partition function and is subject to high variance when the proposal
distribution is more peaked than the target distribution. On the other hand,
"reverse" versions of IS and AIS tend to overestimate the partition function,
and degenerate when the target distribution is more peaked than the proposal
distribution. In this work, we present a simple, general method that gives
much more reliable and robust estimates than either IS (AIS) or reverse IS
(AIS). Our method works by converting the estimation problem into a simple
classification problem that discriminates between the samples drawn from the
target and the proposal. We give extensive theoretical and empirical
justification; in particular, we show that an annealed version of our method
significantly outperforms both AIS and reverse AIS as proposed by Burda et al.
(2015), which has been the state-of-the-art for likelihood evaluation in deep
generative models.

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Marginal MAP inference involves making MAP predictions in systems defined with latent variables
or missing information. It is significantly more difficult than pure marginalization and MAP tasks,
for which a large class of efficient and convergent variational algorithms, such as dual decomposition, exist.
In this work, we generalize dual decomposition to a generic

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Variational algorithms such as tree-reweighted belief propagation can provide deterministic bounds
on the partition function, but are often loose and difficult to use in an "any-time"
fashion, expending more computation for tighter bounds. On the other hand, Monte Carlo estimators
such as importance sampling
have excellent any-time behavior, but depend critically on the proposal distribution.
We propose a simple Monte Carlo based inference method that augments convex variational bounds
by adding importance sampling (IS).
We argue that convex variational methods naturally provide good IS proposals that "cover"
the target probability,
and reinterpret the variational optimization as designing a proposal
to minimize an upper bound on the variance of our IS estimator.
This both provides an accurate estimator and
enables construction of any-time probabilistic bounds that improve quickly and directly on state-of-the-art
variational bounds, and provide certificates of accuracy given enough samples relative to the error in the
initial bound.

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This paper explores the anytime performance of search-based
algorithms for solving the Marginal MAP task over graphical
models. The current state-of-the-art for solving this challenging
task is based on best-first search exploring the AND/OR graph with
the guidance of heuristics based on mini-bucket and variational
cost-shifting principles. Yet, those schemes are uncompromising in
that they solve the problem exactly, or not at all, and often suffer
from memory problems. In this work, we explore the well known
principle of weighted search for converting best-first search
solvers into anytime schemes. The weighted best-first search
schemes report a solution early in the process by using inadmissible
heuristics, and subsequently improve the solution. While it was
demonstrated recently that weighted schemes can yield effective
anytime behavior for pure MAP tasks, Marginal MAP is far more
challenging (e.g., a conditional sum must be evaluated for every
solution). Yet, in an extensive empirical analysis we show that
weighted schemes are indeed highly effective anytime solvers for Marginal MAP
yielding the most competitive schemes to date for this task.

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Despite the advantage of global coverage at high spatiotemporal resolutions, satellite remotely sensed precipitation estimates still suffer from insufficient accuracy that needs to be improved for weather, climate, and hydrologic applications. This paper presents a framework of a deep neural network (DNN) that improves the accuracy of satellite precipitation products, focusing on reducing the bias and false alarms. The state-of-the-art deep learning techniques developed in the area of machine learning specialize in extracting structural information from a massive amount of image data, which fits nicely into the task of retrieving precipitation data from satellite cloud images. Stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE), a widely used DNN, is applied to perform bias correction of satellite precipitation products. A case study is conducted on the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) with spatial resolution of 0.08° × 0.08° over the central United States, where SDAE is used to process satellite cloud imagery to extract information over a window of 15 × 15 pixels. In the study, the summer of 2012 (June–August) and the winter of 2012/13 (December–February) serve as the training periods, while the same seasons of the following year (summer of 2013 and winter of 2013/14) are used for validation purposes. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the methodology outside the study area, three more regions are selected for additional validation. Significant improvements are achieved in both rain/no-rain (R/NR) detection and precipitation rate quantification: the results make 33% and 43% corrections on false alarm pixels and 98% and 78% bias reductions in precipitation rates over the validation periods of the summer and winter seasons, respectively.

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In this paper, we analyze data from a large mobile
phone provider in Europe, pertaining to time series of aggregate
communication volume $A_{i,j}(t) > 0$ between cells $i$ and $j$,
for all pairs of cells in a city over a month. We develop a
methodology for predicting the future (in particular whether
two cells will talk to each other $A_{i,j}(t) > 0$) based on past
activity. Our data set is sparse, with 80% of the values being
zero, which makes prediction challenging. We formulate the
problem as binary classification and, using decision trees and
random forests, we are able to achieve 85% accuracy. By giving
higher weight to false positives, which cost more to network
operators, than false negatives, we improved recall from 40% to
94%. We briefly outline potential applications of this prediction
capability to improve network planning, green small cells, and
understanding urban ecology, all of which can inform policies
and urban planning.

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This paper investigates the application of deep neural networks to
precipitation estimation from remotely sensed information. Specifically, a
stacked denoising auto-encoder is used to automatically extract features from
the infrared cloud images and estimate the amount of precipitation, referred as
PERSIANN-SDAE. Due to the challenging imbalance in precipitation data, a
Kullback-Leibler divergence is incorporated in the objective function to
preserve the distribution of it. PERSIANN-SDAE is compared with a shallow
neural network with hand designed features and an operational satellite-based
precipitation estimation product. The experimental results demonstrate the
effectiveness of PERSIANN-SDAE in estimating precipitation accurately while
preserving its distribution. It outperforms both the shallow neural network and
the operational product.

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In this work, we propose an infinite restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), whose maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) corresponds to a constrained convex optimization. We consider the Frank-Wolfe algorithm to solve the program, which provides a sparse solution that can be interpreted as inserting a hidden unit at each iteration, so that the optimization process takes the form of a sequence of finite models of increasing complexity. As a side benefit, this can be used to easily and efficiently identify an appropriate number of hidden units during the optimization. The resulting model can also be used as an initialization for typical state-of-the-art RBM training algorithms such as contrastive divergence, leading to models with consistently higher test likelihood than random initialization.

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We introduce new anytime search algorithms that combine
best-first with depth-first search into hybrid schemes for
Marginal MAP inference in graphical models. The main goal
is to facilitate the generation of upper bounds (via the best-first part)
alongside the lower bounds of solutions (via the
depth-first part) in an anytime fashion. We compare against
two of the best current state-of-the-art schemes and show
that our best+depth search scheme produces higher quality
solutions faster while also producing a bound on their accuracy,
which can be used to measure solution quality during
search. An extensive empirical evaluation demonstrates the
effectiveness of our new methods which enjoy the strength
of best-first (optimality of search) and of depth-first (memory
robustness), leading to solutions for difficult instances where
previous solvers were unable to find even a single solution.

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Bounding the partition function is a key inference task in
many graphical models. In this paper, we develop an anytime
anyspace search algorithm taking advantage of AND/OR tree
structure and optimized variational heuristics to tighten deterministic
bounds on the partition function. We study how our
priority-driven best-first search scheme can improve on state-of-the-art
variational bounds in an anytime way within limited
memory resources, as well as the effect of the AND/OR framework
to exploit conditional independence structure within the
search process within the context of summation. We compare
our resulting bounds to a number of existing methods, and
show that our approach offers a number of advantages on real-world
problem instances taken from recent UAI competitions.

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Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) and conditional RBMs (CRBMs) are popular models for a wide range of applications. In previous work, learning on such models has been dominated by contrastive divergence (CD) and its variants. Belief propagation (BP) algorithms are believed to be slow for structured prediction on conditional RBMs (e.g., Mnih et al. [2011]), and not as good as CD when applied in learning (e.g., Larochelle et al. [2012]). In this work, we present a matrix-based implementation of belief propagation algorithms on CRBMs, which is easily scalable to tens of thousands of visible and hidden units. We demonstrate that, in both maximum likelihood and max-margin learning, training conditional RBMs with BP as the inference routine can provide significantly better results than current state-of-the-art CD methods on structured prediction problems. We also include practical guidelines on training CRBMs with BP, and some insights on the interaction of learning and inference algorithms for CRBMs.

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We present a new sampling scheme for approximating hard to compute queries over
graphical models, such as computing the partition function. The scheme builds
upon exact algorithms that traverse a weighted directed state-space graph
representing a global function over a graphical model. With the aid of an
abstraction function and randomization, the state space can be compacted to
facilitate tractable computation, yielding a Monte Carlo Estimate that is
unbiased.

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Computing the partition function is a key inference task in many graphical
models. In this paper, we propose a dynamic importance sampling scheme that
provides anytime finite-sample bounds for the partition function. Our
algorithm balances the advantages of the three major inference strategies,
heuristic search, variational bounds, and Monte Carlo methods, blending
sampling with search to refine a variationally defined proposal. Our algorithm
combines and generalizes recent work on anytime search (Lou et al., 2017) and probabilistic bounds (Liu et al., 2015)
of the partition function. By using an intelligently chosen weighted average
over the samples, we construct an unbiased estimator of the partition function
with strong finite-sample confidence intervals that inherit both the rapid
early improvement rate of sampling and the long-term benefits of an improved
proposal from search. This gives significantly improved anytime behavior, and
more flexible trade-offs between memory, time, and solution quality. We
demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach empirically on real-world problem
instances taken from recent UAI competitions.

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We introduce a generalized dual decomposition bound for computing the maximum
expected utility of influence diagrams based on the dual decomposition method
generalized to Lp space. The main goal is to devise an approximation scheme
free from translations required by existing variational approaches while
exploiting the local structure of sum of utility functions as well as the
conditional independence of probability functions. In this work, the
generalized dual decomposition method is applied to the algebraic framework
called valuation algebra for influence diagrams which handles probability and
expected utility as a pair. The proposed approach allows a sequential decision
problem to be decomposed as a collection of sub-decision problems of bounded
complexity and the upper bound of maximum expected utility to be computed by
combining the local expected utilities. Thus, it has a flexible control of
space and time complexity for computing the bound. In addition, the upper
bounds can be further minimized by reparameterizing the utility functions.
Since the global objective function for the minimization is nonconvex, we
present a gradient based local search algorithm in which the outer loop
controls the randomization of the initial configurations and the inner loop
tightens the upper-bound based on block coordinate descent with gradients
perturbed by a random noise. The experimental evaluation demonstrates
highlights of the proposed approach on finite horizon MDP/POMDP instances.

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Marginal MAP is a key task in Bayesian inference and decision-making. It is
known to be very difficult in general, particularly because the evaluation of
each MAP assignment requires solving an internal summation problem. In this
paper, we propose a best-first search algorithm that provides anytime upper
bounds for marginal MAP in graphical models. It folds the computation of
external maximization and internal summation into an AND/OR tree search
framework, and solves them simultaneously using a unified best-first search
algorithm. The algorithm avoids some unnecessary computation of summation
sub-problems associated with MAP assignments, and thus yields significant time
savings. Furthermore, our algorithm is able to operate within limited memory.
Empirical evaluation on three challenging benchmarks demonstrates that our
unified best-first search algorithm using pre-compiled variational heuristics
often provides tighter anytime upper bounds compared to those state-of-the-art
baselines.

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Many real-world problems, such as Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) with evidence,
can be represented as a highly symmetric graphical model perturbed by
additional potentials. In these models, variational inference approaches that
exploit exact model symmetries are often forced to ground the entire problem,
while methods that exploit approximate symmetries (such as by constructing an
over-symmetric approximate model) offer no guarantees on solution quality. In
this paper, we present a method based on a lifted variant of the generalized
dual decomposition (GenDD) for marginal MAP inference which provides a
principled way to exploit symmetric sub-structures in a graphical model. We
develop a coarse-to-fine inference procedure that provides any-time upper
bounds on the objective. The upper bound property of GenDD provides a
principled way to guide the refinement process, providing good any-time
performance and eventually arriving at the ground optimal solution.

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Compared to ground precipitation measurements, satellite-based precipitation
estimation products have the advantage of global coverage and high
spatiotemporal resolutions. However, the accuracy of satellite-based
precipitation products is still insufficient to serve many weather, climate,
and hydrologic applications at high resolutions. In this paper, the authors
develop a state-of-the-art deep learning framework for precipitation estimation
using bispectral satellite information, infrared (IR), and water vapor (WV)
channels. Specifically, a two-stage framework for precipitation estimation from
bispectral information is designed, consisting of an initial rain/no-rain
(R/NR) binary classification, followed by a second stage estimating the nonzero
precipitation amount. In the first stage, the model aims to eliminate the large
fraction of NR pixels and to delineate precipitation regions precisely. In the
second stage, the model aims to estimate the pointwise precipitation amount
accurately while preserving its heavily skewed distribution. Stacked denoising
autoencoders (SDAEs), a commonly used deep learning method, are applied in both
stages. Performance is evaluated along a number of common performance measures,
including both R/NR and real-valued precipitation accuracy, and compared with
an operational product, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed
Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Cloud Classification System
(PERSIANN-CCS). For R/NR binary classification, the proposed two-stage model
outperforms PERSIANN-CCS by 32.56\% in the critical success index (CSI). For
real-valued precipitation estimation, the two-stage model is 23.40\% lower in
average bias, is 44.52\% lower in average mean squared error, and has a 27.21\%
higher correlation coefficient. Hence, the two-stage deep learning framework
has the potential to serve as a more accurate and more reliable satellite-based
precipitation estimation product. The authors also provide some future
directions for development of satellite-based precipitation estimation products
in both incorporating auxiliary information and improving retrieval algorithms.

| |

The Marginal MAP inference task is known to be extremely hard
particularly because the evaluation of each complete MAP assignment
involves an exact likelihood computation (a combinatorial sum). For
this reason, most recent state-of-the-art solvers that focus on
computing anytime upper and lower bounds on the optimal value are
limited to solving instances with tractable conditioned summation
subproblems. In this paper, we develop new search-based bounding
schemes for Marginal MAP that produce anytime upper and lower bounds
without performing exact likelihood computations. The empirical
evaluation demonstrates the effectiveness of our new methods against
the current best-performing search-based bounds.

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We present a framework to compose artificial neural networks in cases where the
data cannot be treated as independent events. Our particular motivation is star
galaxy classification for ground based optical surveys. Due to a turbulent
atmosphere and imperfect instruments, a single image of an astronomical object
is not enough to definitively classify it as a star or galaxy. Instead the
context of the surrounding objects imaged at the same time need to be
considered in order to make an optimal classification. The model we present is
divided into three distinct ANNs: one designed to capture local features about
each object, the second to compare these features across all objects in an
image, and the third to make a final prediction for each object based on the
local and compared features. By exploiting the ability to replicate the weights
of an ANN, the model can handle an arbitrary and variable number of individual
objects embedded in a larger exposure. We train and test our model on
simulations of a large up and coming ground based survey, the Large Synoptic
Survey Telescope (LSST). We compare to the state of the art approach, showing
improved overall performance as well as better performance for a specific class
of objects that is important for the LSST.

| |

We present a new sampling scheme for approximating hard to compute
queries over graphical models, such as computing the partition function. The
scheme builds upon exact algorithms that traverse a weighted directed
state-space graph representing a global function over a graphical model (e.g.,
probability distribution). With the aid of an abstraction function and
randomization, the state space can be compacted (or trimmed) to facilitate
tractable computation, yielding a Monte Carlo Estimate that is unbiased. We
present the general scheme and analyze its properties analytically and
empirically, investigating two specific ideas for picking abstractions -
targeting reduction of variance or search space size.

| |

We introduce a new decomposition method for bounding the maximum expected
utility of influence diagrams. While most current schemes use reductions to the
Marginal Map task over a Bayesian Network, our approach is direct, aiming to
avoid the large explosion in the model size that often results by such
reductions. In this paper, we extend to influence diagrams the principles of
decomposition methods that were applied earlier to probabilistic inference,
utilizing an algebraic framework called valuation algebra which effectively
captures both multiplicative and additive local structures present in influence
diagrams. Empirical evaluation on four benchmarks demonstrates the
effectiveness of our approach compared to reduction-based approaches and
illustrates significant improvements in the upper bounds on maximum expected
utility.

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Marginal MAP is a key task in Bayesian inference and decision-making, and known
to be very challenging in general. In this paper, we present an algorithm that
blends heuristic search and importance sampling to provide anytime
finite-sample bounds for marginal MAP along with predicted MAP solutions. We
convert bounding marginal MAP to a surrogate task of bounding a series of
summation problems of an augmented graphical model, and then adapt dynamic
importance sampling (Lou et al., 2017) a recent advance in bounding the
partition function, to provide finite-sample bounds for the surrogate task.
Those bounds are guaranteed to be tight given enough time, and the values of
the predicted MAP solutions will converge to the optimum. Our algorithm runs
in an anytime/anyspace manner, which gives flexible trade-offs between memory,
time, and solution quality. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach
empirically on multiple challenging benchmarks in comparison with some
state-of-the-art search algorithms.

| |

We present a novel approach to solve dynamic programs (DP) with exponential
state space, which are the foundations to solving many computer vision problems.
Contrary to typical DP approach which has to enumerate all combinations of
states of parent node and child node(s) in order to compute the optimal
message(s) from child node(s), we propose an algorithm that applies Nested
Benders Decomposition (NBD) to iteratively lower bound the message(s) from child
node(s). We apply our NBD based DP along with a novel Maximum Weight Set Packing
(MWSP) formulation of multi-person pose estimation, demonstrating that our
algorithm is provably optimal at terimiation, while also operates
in linear time for practical problems, gaining up to 500x speed up over
traditional DP algorithm which is of polynomial complexity.